NYC PIECE MEAL HEAVY RAIN HIGH WINDS – Good morning everyone! We wake up this morning to some scattered heavy rain and breezy conditions. The NWS map is lit up with all sorts of watches/warnings – a flash flood watch, high wind warning, and storm warning for the waters surrounding our area. The nomenclature of our system and how it’s going to develop, really hasn’t changed much. However, the way we receive our rainfall totals and high winds, has changed slightly.

First off, we’ve already had a few rumbles of thunder and some periods of heavy rain as things get going.  There has also been some patchy fog in the area in between clusters of rain. This will continue throughout the day as waves of energy travel up the coast to give us periods of rain, heavy at times, and a chance of some rumbles of thunder. Our initial winds will be highest in these areas of convection.

Winds will increase as the day wears on. Along the immediate coast, areas could see 20-25mph sustained winds and gusts around 35-40mph. Away from the coast due to more landmass/more friction, knock these numbers down 15-20mph and gusts 30-35mph. Overnight, the 1st half of the meat and potatoes move in. Heavy rain will increase in frequency, and winds will ramp up to 30-45mph sustained, with possible gusts near 60mph along the immediate shore. Same thing for inland, lower these numbers to 25-35mph sustained, and possible gusts to 50mph.

Aside from the immediate shore, I still remain skeptical as to how high these wind numbers really go. It’s one of those things to better be safe than sorry and put it out there just in case; but this is going to be one of those systems that we won’t know the true final outcome until it’s underway and we see the actual structure of the system. Our highest of gusts though should be felt along the immediate south shore of NYC/LI, Forks of Long Island, Block Island, Nantucket, Marthas Vineyard, and even parts of Cape Cod.

Because of the speed of this system, the first period of very strong winds should be relatively short lived, with winds settling down late overnight to 15-25mph as low pressure heads north and winds swing around from the southeast to the southwest. After that, we ramp up the winds tomorrow again as the low deepens upstate, spinning strong westerlies 20-35mph and gusts possibly reaching 50-60mph again. Showers come to an end and the skies begin to clear, but the winds will be with us all day.

The biggest threat with this system will be downed power lines and some downed trees. Had we had a normal fall, the trees wouldn’t have been in as much danger, but we still have plenty of green foliage left and it could help catch the wind. Combine that with the soft soil due to the heavy rain, and it could be fairly easy to topple some of these trees, especially the weaker ones with the dry summer/fall we had. Other than that, treat this system as you would any Nor’Easter this time of year: secure all garbage pails, plants, and furniture you still have outside. I know I still have all my furniture out with all of this great weather we had, and I’m sure many of you do too, so secure it. Rainfall remains in the 2-5″ realm.

On another note, Halloween continues to hold strong, with sunny/breezy conditions and highs 55-60.


storm free

storm free

storm free
storm free







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