CLEAR STORM PATH PICTURE SOLIDIFIES SUNDAY STORM FORECAST
CLEAR STORM PATH PICTURE SOLIDIFIES SUNDAY STORM FORECAST
CLEAR STORM PATH PICTURE SOLIDIFIES SUNDAY STORM FORECAST – Good morning everyone. Now that all of the pieces of the puzzle are coming together for Sunday/Monday’s storm, we can begin to see a clear picture as to who will get the heaviest rain and strongest winds.
First and foremost, we’ll enjoy a beautiful day today; with sunny skies, temps 65-70, and an increasing southerly breeze as the first piece of the puzzle, a strong cold front, swings our way. That cold front will give us increasing clouds tonight, with the chance of some rain starting between midnight and 4am.
Tropical moisture associated with low pressure near Cuba, will be picked up by this approaching cold front; helping enhance the front, as well as help create a wave of low pressure that’ll begin to deepen south of Long Island. This will increase the intensity of the rain and wind, which will shift from the south to the southeast over the course of tomorrow.
Regardless of whether the origin of this energy is tropical or not, it won’t retain any tropical characteristics whatsoever. All it will be, is the main energy source and we are not getting hit by a tropical or Sandy-like post tropical system.
The timing of the front was crucial as to where the low pressure goes, affecting who will see what and when. With the front hanging slightly to the west, this will help bring the low pressure system somewhere over/near Long Island and bring it straight up into New England or just west of the border into central New York.
This will set the NYC/LI (as well as areas of NW NJ, NE PA, upstate NY, and western New England) area for the heaviest of precipitation. Expect 2-5 inches of rain total for this event, with localized flooding in poor drainage areas, especially at times of heaviest precipitation.
As far as winds, the strongest winds will actually be on Monday, when the system really wraps up tight to our north and precipitation ends for us.
So for tomorrow, we’ll have rain, heavy at times, maybe even a rumble of thunder; highs in the mid to uppper 60’s. Winds will be out of the southeast 10-20mph (strongest at the immediate shore); becoming more gusty later in the morning, with gusts 20-25mph away from the coast, and 30-35mph at the immediate shore.
Overnight tomorrow, rain, heavy at times continues. Winds will increase in intensity, with southeast winds switching to the southwest as low pressure begins its trek north of the area. We’ll have sustained winds 15-25mph (strongest at the immediate shore), and gusts 30-35mph away from the shore, near 40mph along the immediate shore.
On Monday, we dial down the rain, but turn up the wind a notch. Deepening low pressure will funnel in strong west winds before it departs. We’ll have decreasing rain, decreasing clouds, but westerlies 20-30mph, gusts 30-40mph, possibly 50mph near the coast.
So in some cases, we’ll be seeing what we’re used to every October/November, but if we could give this type of system a new name, I’d call it a So’Easter for Sunday, and a Nor’Wester for Monday. Either way, it’s not the apocalypse unless you’re a garbage can or a power line next to a rickety tree…or you’re the rickety tree.
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