NYC Remains Quiet Next Four Days
Good morning everyone. We continue to have clouds stuck in the area for a gloomy and damp day today, then we will begin to clear things out overnight as colder air rushes in. It’ll be an unseasonably cold start to our weekend, but we’re already back to near 50 for Sunday. We also start a new parade of systems once this one gets out of the way, which is why it’s important to be cautious when trying to predict a late-season snowfall 4-5 systems away. If one system is “off” by 25 miles and then next one off another 25 and so on, what you see now on your models may be wildly inaccurate when that system finally does pay a visit.
SATELLITE
For today, look for lingering clouds, a light, damp NE wind, and highs in the 45-50 range. We’ll begin to clear out overnight and winds will increase. Lows will be 30-35 degrees.
Tomorrow will be windy, sunny, and temps slightly above average, but it’ll feel colder with that wind. Highs will be in the mid 40’s. Overnight will be very cold as we dip into the upper teens to low 20’s.
WEATHER RADAR
A weak system will pass by on Saturday representing milder air for Sunday, but we could see a few scattered cold sprinkles or snow flakes on Saturday as highs struggle in the low 30’s. Sunshine returns on Sunday with highs 45-50.
One of the systems in question will be the one visiting late Monday/Tuesday. If you’ve been reading my forecasts, one of the scenarios I put forth for getting SOME snow in the area, would be an overrunning setup. This looks to be one of those setups, but it’s too early to say how this is going to play out. How much cold air tries to dig back in, how stubborn is it, where our system goes, and if there is a late energy transfer to the coast, are all factors in terms of how this is going to pay out.
It won’t take much to get us out of the “danger zone” in terms of breaking the lowest recorded snowfall for NYC, but we still need some sort of decent setup. NYC will have to get approx. 2.2″ of snow (depending on your source) to step away from the #1 all-time spot.
As of this very moment, we could see some onset PM snow or mix, changing to rain, then maybe some parting flakes. Areas N&W of the City could see moderate event, with higher elevations seeing a fairly sized dumping of wet snow. We’ll watch it as we get closer.
If you go way out into the long range and 9-10 days from now, the GFS is hinting at a coastal storm. Right now for me this is all entertainment, and I’ll sit back with some popcorn while the snow weenies hash it out in their bunkers filled with Star Wars memorabilia.
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