NYC Slight Chance Onset Frozen Precip Late Monday
Good morning everyone. We have cloudy skies and a smattering of light snow around the Tri-State, but it won’t amount to much as most of the energy is heading to our north and also to our south. We have a more important system to start the week, but the focus will be on interior parts of the Northeast again. Behind that, we enter fantasy land as models depict a bigger system, and that one remains way too early to even speculate on what it’ll look like (if anything at all).
SATELLITE
Expect cloudy skies today. and if we’re going to see any light snow at all, it should start happening around now for a brief period. Most areas will not see any action because the air is fairly dry, but for those that do, a very light dusting is possible with temps in the upper 20’s. Highs overall today will be in the low 30’s.
Sunshine returns tomorrow as does the wind. We’ll be on the milder side with highs in near 50, but windy conditions will help make it feel much cooler.
WEATHER RADAR
Our more moisture-laden system begins to approach the area on Monday. Expect increasing clouds during the morning, then the chance of some onset snow, sleet, and/or rain. Any type of overrunning setup is very tricky, especially this particular season with warmer than average temps and water temps. An ESE wind blowing off the milder ocean is detrimental even during a typical winter, and this will be worse.
As of this very moment, I’m going to call for a very brief period of onset snow or mixed precip, quickly turning to rain. Little to no accumulation is expected in the NYC/LI area, but northernmost parts of the City might hold on a little longer IF the colder air remains stubborn. Interior parts of the Northeast will be the primary focus, where a wide swath of 6-12″+ snow accumulations are possible. Just north and west of the City, we could see a 3-6/4-8″ type snowfall if again, the cold air is stubborn enough.
We’ll watch it closely and look at the timing of the precip, plus how much cold air is available. The most accurate take on this will actually be Monday morning.
Cold rain holds on late overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, then we’ll have partial clearing and highs in the low to mid 40’s. Sunshine and near 50 temps return for Wednesday, then we start watching the next system for late in the week/next weekend.
As for late next week, I’m holding off on predicting anything because we have to see what’s behind our system on Mon/Tues. Anybody throwing out numbers or believing models this early in the game, is just guessing or wishing for the best.
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