NYC SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW CHANCE DISCUSSION
NYC SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW CHANCE DISCUSSION
NYC SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW CHANCE DISCUSSION – Good evening everyone and welcome to yet another very complicated forecast. As stated in my morning briefing, an overrunning area of moisture will overspread the area in between late Friday night/before daybreak Saturday.
Cold air will be stubborn to leave, so upon onset of this precip, it may start as some light snow before mixing with and possibly changing to all rain by late morning Saturday. This will all depend on how stubborn this cold air is, as is usually the case with overrunning situations during the winter. At worst, we would have a mix of rain and snow all day, with little to no accumulation due to highs in the mid to upper 30’s. This is where things get complicated though.
As this wave moves through, another one will try and form well east/southeast of Long Island, possibly setting up a negative trough reaching back towards the area. If this does form, and it’s very hard to predict if it will, it can send back an arm of moisture as colder air settles back in; changing any rain or mix back to all snow. If that sets up, it gets even more complicated.
NYC SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW CHANCE DISCUSSION
IF this trough forms and snow reaches back out across the area, then we have to see how it sets up. In the past, these areas are generally very narrow and can take form on different angles. The crisscross you’re looking at provides 9 different variables we won’t know until it actually forms, if it even forms at all. Does it cut across the NYC area and most of Long Island? Does it only spread across Long Island? Or does it set up in a more North/South fashion, only giving LI and NYC some snow and none upstate. After that, which way does it move out? Does it slide across the island? Does it pivot, turn, drift, then fizzle out?
So as you can see, it’s extremely difficult to pinpoint and predict. Because of this, we will watching the radar closely to see if this arm of precip forms overnight Saturday, and update if it does to bring you the most accurate forecast possible. That being said, this will not be a blizzard or Nor’easter type situation and snow amounts will be limited to a light to upper moderate snowfall at worst if it happens at all.
Stay tuned!
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