NYC SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL MAP DISCUSSION
NYC SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL MAP DISCUSSION
NYC SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL MAP DISCUSSION – Good morning everyone! If you’ve been following the forecasts for the past 24 hours, things have grown complicated for this weekend and remain so. First, we have a beautiful day to enjoy, with sunny skies, lighter winds, and highs in the low to mid 40’s in the NYC area. Tonight, clouds increase as a system begins it’s approach into the area, with lows in the low 30’s. As precip spreads across the area well after midnight, it may start out as some very light snow. As daybreak approaches and temps begin to rise, any snow that does fall will begin to mix with rain, then change over to a plain cold rain sometime after noon; highs near 40.
This light snow, snow/rain mix, and cold rain is actually the first part of a very complex system possibly brewing. As this overrunning area of precip begins to exit the area, a wave of low pressure will try and form, then scoot well off the coast of Long Island. As this happens, it may potentially throw back an arm of moisture as colder air begins to filter back in behind this low. If this takes place, it might set up a very localized and very narrow snow event for the NYC and Long Island area. It doesn’t happen very often and this type of set up is very hard to predict. Below is the first snow map generated given the information at hand.
NYC SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL MAP DISCUSSION
If this setup happens, any rain will turn to snow in between late evening and midnight tomorrow night. Temperatures should drop from the upper 30’s to near 30, allowing the process for snow to stick on most surfaces after an hour or two of starting. Snow would be with us until early Sunday morning. It is very important to take note that there is VERY LOW CONFIDENCE in this map. We have to wait and see if the low is able to throw back moisture into the area. If this doesn’t happen, the NYC and Long Island area will see NO or very little accumulating snow.
If the low is able to throw back this arm of moisture in the form a negative trough, we could potentially see 3-6″+ for most of Long Island and the southern CT coast, and 2-4″ in the City. The 2-5″ and coating to 2″ amounts in NJ reflect a combination of the initial snow Friday night and a quick burst of light snow IF the low throws back moisture. Again, lack of formation of this arm of moisture will dramatically lower final amounts or eliminate the idea of accumulating snow in most areas.
This is a very complicated set up and realistically, we have to keep on top of this, allow it to develop, and adjust the snow maps as the radar begins to set up. These negative troughs are nearly impossible to predict, even by models, so stay tuned.
Satellite View
Our next system is clearly visible, entering the Great Lake states and spreading east/southeast.
Northeast Radar
Local and regional radar is very quiet, but will begin to fill in later tonight and into tomorrow morning in the form of light snow, snow/rain mix, and a plain cold rain.
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