NYC SATURDAY STORM FORECAST CLARIFIES – Good morning everyone! Good news for some, not so good for others. If you take a look at my previous forecasts, I was very hesitant to make the call as to who was going to see the heaviest rain. It’s never a good sign this time of year when models are all in agreement that some sort of system is going to form, but are all over the place with track and speed of exit. Things are starting to become more clear and will continue to do so throughout the day and into tonight.

Let’s start out with today, which is shaping up to be a relatively nice day considering the doom and gloom our models had us in for 96 hours ago. We’ll have clouds and sun for the rest of the day, muggy conditions, a light NE breeze, and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Because the storm is taking it’s time getting together, this lag allows the mechanics of atmosphere to suppress low pressure further south when it does form. Yesterday in my live cast, I said that this low could for anywhere south of Long Island to near Cape May, NJ. It looks like we’ll be on target for the Cape May area, or even slightly further south.

This will put us on the northern fringe of precip for Saturday. Now by all means, hit or miss, Saturday will not be a nice day for the NYC/LI area. We’ll have clouds and showers by midnight tonight, gusty NE winds, and these conditions will remain going through at least late morning. Even if the rain quits, we’ll still be left with clouds, cool gusty winds, and rough seas for the beachgoers, highs 70-75 (coolest along the immediate shore with the stronger maritime winds) Overall, we should see .25 to 1″ of rain total in the NYC/LI area, with the heaviest of rain concentrated in Central or even Southern NJ.

Surface Low Moves South and Out to Sea, Upper Level Meanders Extra Time

As far as the exit of this system, that will also move along faster than the models which had it blocked off and hanging around through Wednesday. This will allow my original forecast for Sunday of decreasing clouds, a cool NE breeze, and highs near 80 to hold firm. That NE breeze will be courtesy of the upper level low which will hang back by Maryland before pulling away sometime on Monday. For Monday, clouds associated with that upper level low and NE winds will continue for a little longer, making for a relatively pleasant Monday and highs near 80 again. Rough seas will continue due to that prolonged NE fetch, so for you mariners out there, best to enjoy the dry weather by sticking to the bays which will be fine.

Above Normal Heat & Humidity Return For 1st Week of August

For the long range, I’ve been talking about this for quite some time and I have to admit, my heart skipped a beat when this anomaly came into picture, but I’m still confident of above normal temps and humidity returning. As long as everything clears out on time, temps will start to build for our first day of August on Tuesday; with sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 80’s. I think the GFS may be a little overdone with temps on Tuesday, but it shows the potential and what is unfolding. As of now, I’m thinking we’re back on track for upper 80’s to near 90 on Wednesday and Thursday, then that questionable 3rd day of hot weather for Friday. We’ll have to see if it can hang on before seasonably warm temps move back in for Saturday and Sunday. After that, above normal temps try and build back in for another warm and humid stretch during the 2nd quarter of August. Also, still on the horizon is a major cool push for mid-August after the potential heat I’m seeing.


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