NYC SNOWSTORM UPDATE MODEL AGREEMENT
NYC SNOWSTORM UPDATE MODEL AGREEMENT
NYC SNOWSTORM UPDATE MODEL AGREEMENT – We’re waking up to a frigid morning and the prospect of a rather sizeable snowfall. First, we have some very cold air to deal with for the next couple of days. As of this moment, it’s still in the mid to upper teens in most of the NYC area and highs today will only make it into the upper 20’s. Tonight, we’ll slip back into the teens and once again, and only make to near 30 tomorrow, even with the March sun. Tomorrow night we dip back into the upper teens and Monday we’ll have sunny skies in the morning, with increasing clouds late and highs in the low 30’s. All of this cold air in place will be the first ingredient of many, that will attribute to this storm.
NYC SNOWSTORM UPDATE MODEL AGREEMENT – Late last night, the GFS took another dip inland, making for a sloppy scenario for the NYC area. However, it has corrected itself and has now popped in line with the EURO and many other models. At this point, it’s safe to say we’ve established a general path give or take 50-100 miles. This margin of error could make a difference for some localized areas, but if the path holds, most of the NYC area will see a mostly snow event.
During the next couple of days, we will continue to try and establish the final strength and speed of the system. If we now know that this will be a mostly snow event, strength and speed will determine exactly what to expect in terms of accumulations. Given the information we have at this very moment, and it can change, we can get a roundabout idea what to expect.
While this is subject to change, the NYC area will most likely see 1-2ft of snow given the forecasted strength, speed, and path of the system. Any change in either 3 of these ingredients can downgrade, or believe it or not, uptick the amounts. South facing shores may see periods of sleet and rain mixed in due to the dynamics of the system, possibly keeping amounts closer to that 1ft realm. Also, parts of Eastern Long Island, especially the forks, may see a mix with or change to rain before changing back to snow, keeping final tallies lower. To add insult to injury, we could see Blizzard warnings pop up in areas undetermined yet due to strong winds combined with the heavy snow, and the prospect of coastal flooding/beach erosion due to a full moon.
Please stay tuned as we watch the ingredients come together and really dial in the final conditions and snow accumulations to be expected.
Everything looks pretty innocuous at this moment, but clouds slipping into Kentucky and Tennessee, plus a gathering of clouds in Nebraska and Iowa, will combine for a big mess come Monday night in the NYC area.
Radar is quiet and will remain so until late Monday night, as a low pressure system winds up to give us a big punch from Old Man Winter.
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