NYC Strong Systems Ahead Bring Colder Winter Second Half
Good morning everyone and happy Saturday. We have a quiet and cool day today, then things begin to start becoming more active. We’re expecting at least 6 systems to pass through within the next 14 days or so (not all of them big), but equally as important. Let’s get to the immediate forecast, then talk about long range below.
SATELLITE
We’ll have a mix of sun & clouds to day with upper 30’s to low 40’s for a near-seasonably cold/cool day. Clouds will increase overnight and continue to increase tomorrow morning. The new moon may cause some tidal departure today for some spots, causing minor flooding in low-lying, flood prone areas.
We may still see a few blue patches early, but clouds will continue to lower and thicken, as well as an increase in winds. We’ll have rain developing by late afternoon, and we could see a repeat in some coastal flooding, which may be further amplified by a southeast fetch of wind. Highs tomorrow in the low to mid 40’s.
WEATHER RADAR
Rain continues early Monday morning, then we could see some partial clearing and breezy conditions. Look for more highs in the low 40 realm.
Sunshine returns briefly for Tuesday, then we’ll see increasing clouds later in the day or evening. Expect more low to mid 40’s. Lows in the near 30 range could set us up for a mixing scenario early Wednesday.
Those increasing clouds will be ahead of our next system for Wednesday. Overrunning precip will spread out well-ahead of the primary low, possibly giving us a chance of some brief wet snow or mix for the onset of our precipitation. This will highly depend on the start time of our precip and it’s too early to tell right now. The later it starts, the better the chance of a wet start. “Warmer” air will overtake the area quickly with highs in the mid to upper 40’s.
That system is gone by Thursday, replaced with sunshine and breezy conditions. Cold air looms behind our midweek system, but it’ll take an extra day to get here. After mid 40’s Thursday, looks for upper 30’s Friday and 20’s overnight for a more seasonable winter feel. Remember, average highs for the NYC area are upper 30’s during the dead of winter.
In the long range, we continue to see colder air, stronger systems, which equate to colder systems overall. How that equates for NYC as far as snow, has yet to be seen. However, this will be the best chance of the season we have seen to possibly get some wintry precipitation in here. Time will tell and system track will be crucial, but at least we have the cold air available, some cold air in place, stronger systems, and a more favorable jet stream to work with. While snow is no guarantee, at minimum the first week of February is looking cold to very cold.
Stay tuned!
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