NYC Subtropical Storm Nicole To Impact East Coast
Good morning everyone. We’ve been watching the tropics for several weeks now as models kept producing wonky runs with wild-looking tropical activity scenarios and things that seemed nearly impossible. Finally, this activity (which is mostly stemmed from stalled systems and cut-off lows), has come to fruition in the form of Subtropical Storm Nicole. Don’t let the introduction cool you though, just because she’s subtropical, doesn’t mean there won’t be problems. She will eventually join the ranks of Sandy and “The Perfect Storm’ in terms of late season and fall oddities. While she won’t be as destructive, I think there will be a few surprises up her sleeve.
SATELLITE
Locally, we are sitting pretty today with 1 more very mild and sunny day. Expect highs ranging from the low to upper 70’s depending on your proximity to cooler waters of the south shore. The best chance to see upper 70’s, will be interior Brooklyn & Queens, parts of the Bronx, and the north shore of Long Island. Near 80 temps may be observed in the Newark area and areas just west and south of Raritan Bay, NJ.
Overnight, our wind profile shifts and cooler air drops down with little fanfare. We’ll remain sunny, but a gusty northerly flow will drop us into the mid to upper 50 range. This is pretty much seasonable, but it’ll feel chilly compared to today.
WEATHER RADAR
Cool air remains in place for Wednesday under sunshine and lighter winds. Expect more mid 50’s, but then we go milder Thursday. We’ll see how long we can hold onto the sunshine Thursday as our next front nears, but we should have sunshine for most of the day. If anything, high clouds will move in late as highs reach the mid 60’s.
After that, we’ll be watching Nicole and the timing of that front. So far I think rain holds off for morning and early afternoon Friday, then we should have some rain moving in by late afternoon/early eve. This rain is not from Nicole directly, but it’ll from the front energized by Nicole. Either way, a good soaking on & off rain is likely.
As that front moves away and Nicole’s center rides up the front, very chilly air will be pulled down behind it. Saturday remains somewhat seasonable with partial clearing late, but Sunday looks to be in the mid to upper 40’s for the moment. We’ll keep an eye on it all, as well as any potential impact Nicole will have for the Southeast.
So far I think the storm surge will be the most “surprising” aspect of this storm for the Southeast. It may not be devastating like Ian’s surge, but Nicole will take up a lot of real estate. Her physical size and slow speed may bring a decent amount of water into the Southeast.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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