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NYC WEEKEND WINTER STORM UPDATE
Good afternoon everyone. I’m chiming in to give a brief winter storm update in regards to our weekend storm for the New York City area. we have a couple of changes for those who like watching model run after model run, and some of those changes create more questions than answers.
A brief mention about tonight and tomorrow; again, expect a coating to 2″ of snow for the area, and we could have some problems with the morning commute before things turn to rain.
For our afternoon model runs, the GFS model grew slightly colder while the NAM grew slightly warmer. The difference to me is so slight, that in my opinion, they just nudged a little bit towards each other in terms of where they’re going with this.
I still believe that we have a period of good snows in the NYC area. How long that period lasts remains in question; as at minimum, we introduce a prolonged period of wintry mix/freezing rain if things don’t go over to plain rain.
Unless there are any big changes overnight into tomorrow, I’m sticking with 2-4″ of snow for the NYC area late on Saturday until we have to stop the clock and closely watch the radar and cold air.Yes, I believe barring any drastic changes, this is going to be one of those systems that need to be watched all the way through for surprises on the positive or negative end, depending on your perceptive.
A snow to mix to rain to snow event looks to me like a 2-4/3-6″ type event on the front end, and maybe another 1-3″ on the back if there’s enough juice remaining. That’ll give us a nice snow/ice Tiramisu cake. A warmer solution looks like 2-4″ to me, then nothing on the back end except a major headache when the cold air moves in. All snow will be your staple 10-14/12-18″ hit, with all the inconveniences of a snow storm, but lacking major ice issues.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Regardless of the outcome, New York City and parts of the Tri-State, including Long Island, are going to be in a precarious situation Sunday night and Monday. We’re almost better off getting that 12-18″ of all snow than any changeover to mix or liquid.
A deep freeze is coming Sunday night into Monday; and for all of you old folks out there like me, if we get any liquid or mix involved in this, it’ll look like the episode of Tom & Jerry when they froze the kitchen.
We’ll remain vigilant about this system and remember, either way, regardless of precip type, there will be ramifications.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.