NYC WEEKEND WINTRY EVENT POSSIBLE PROCEED WITH CAUTION

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NYC WEEKEND WINTRY EVENT POSSIBLE PROCEED WITH CAUTION

Good morning everyone. The internet has been abuzz the last couple of days with talk about a snowstorm possible for the New York City area and the Northeast. While this is true, we must proceed with caution and explain it all, including what can go wrong for snow-lovers. Meanwhile, we have a pretty quiet and nice week until Friday, which is one of the ingredients in this complicated forecast.

EASTERN SATELLITE

storm free

First off, we have a very seasonable and plain-vanilla start to the week unfolding. Expect dead-on average temps today with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the mid 30’s. Tomorrow is looking like the best day of the week comfort-wise, with a light breeze, sunny skies, and highs in the mid to upper 30’s. Wednesday looks like the best on paper, but increasing winds will make things feel much colder than they are; highs in the upper 30’s to maybe low 40’s.

That wind represents a brief reinforcing shot of cool air as we slip back into the low 30’s for a breezy Thursday. That’ll set the stage for our first system as it arrives Thursday night.

REGIONAL RADAR

storm free

Here is where things begin to get complicated. Overnight Thursday, a somewhat weak system may spread some light snow over the area. As of this moment, system path look unfriendly in terms of keeping things all snow, so expect things to change to rain on Friday before everything quickly departs. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the timing and exact track, because this will have a role in what our weekend looks like. For the time being, this smaller system has the potential to drop a coating to 2″ of snow before changing to rain; so Friday morning’s commute could be an issue in areas where roads are poorly treated.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

storm free

Saturday remains looking dry as we sit between our departing system and our gathering, much larger system. Friday’s departing system could be the spoiler or the enabler in terms of what kind of airflow/airmass is behind it. Any slight change in timing can throw things way off for the NYC area, as well as other parts of the Northeast.

This is what we know for sure –

Low pressure will drop down into lower Midwest after transiting across the Rockies from the West Coast. It’ll be south enough to tap into the juicy gulf as it treks across and into the upstate Gulf-states, then into the Southeast. Then, a  turn north/northeast is expected at this time.

When this happens, overrunning moisture will spread up the Eastern Seaboard and into the Northeast. There should be enough cold air to start things off as a wintry mix Saturday night, then everything becomes uncertain after that.

Does low pressure trend further south and slide out to sea like this past weekend? Does it move far enough up the coast to wallop the area? Or does it move too far north and give inland areas a tremendous snowstorm while we dance in the rain or on the rain/snow line.

All are possibilities in my mind at this time. I know it’s exciting and people are yearning for some winter action, but we must approach with caution. Again, it’s Monday trying to look at Sunday, past a weaker system on Thursday night/Friday. Even at this very moment, some models show we are extremely close to that rain/snow line. That’s not a good sign in my opinion in terms of nailing down an early forecast.

Let’s be cool about it and we will watch things carefully.

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
storm free

 

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.