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NYC WINTER STORM PROSPECTS AFTERNOON UPDATE
Good afternoon everyone. It’s been a while since I’ve done an afternoon follow-up to a forecast with little going on, but I’m here to be the voice of reason during a percieved-exciting moment.
EASTERN SATELLITE
First off, we have a narrow band of snow which may brush the area in a few hours. Nothing much is expected and most of that energy will go to our west and north, but don’t be surprised to see a few flakes before the main batch of energy arrives later.
Later on tonight, we’ll have a mix of snow, sleet, and rain before turning to all rain well before sunrise. Tomorrow remains looking rainy till late morning/early afternoon, then lingering clouds as we could get another round of showers tomorrow night. For the full forecast on the upcoming week, click here. To read about the possible system next weekend, scroll down.
REGIONAL RADAR
To end the week/start the weekend, much colder air will work into the area, with a reinforcing shot coming in mid to late weekend. This reinforcing shot and accompanying energy, may join up with the southern part of this split-jet pattern, giving us a headache for some, a winter-wonderland for snow lovers.
This afternoon’s GFS run paints a perfect picture for the NYC/Long Island area in terms of squeezing out the most snow out of this system’s potential. The only problem is, it’s Monday and we still have to get through tonight and tomorrow’s weather. Had this popped up let’s say, Thursday, then my heart would be pumping fast.
Can this all come together perfectly and we get slammed? Of course, but it’s way too early in the game and such a perfect scenario shown 6-7 days out concerns me in terms of actually playing out this way.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
For those who love snow, I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but there are still 4 scenarios that can play out.
- There is no phasing and energy slips to our south and north for zero to light precip.
- Things get together too late or suppressed south, giving us a glancing blow with light precip or none at all.
- Things come together perfectly for a 12-18″+ romping of snow.
- Low pressure develops, but rides inland/near inland, giving us a shot of heavy snow turning to heavy rain.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
Stay tuned as we watch it all. I’m not a snow guy, but I am impartial, so you’ll get the best forecast possible minus the hype.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.