Weather Models Continue Snow Divergence
02/10/24 10:35am ET
Good morning everyone. We continue to watch the genesis of our vigorous storm that’ll head out from the Southwest and eventually into the Northeast. Weather models are in agreement that we will be dealing with a coastal storm at some point early in the workweek, but it is a complicated setup and still too early to determine if the big cities are going to see plowable snow out of this.
What we do know is that heavy rains and more isolated severe weather will plague Texas on east through the Gulf States, and into the Southeast. In these areas, we could see embedded heavy thunderstorms, capable of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. It’ll happen in 2 waves essentially, with the first wave expected this evening in the Texarkana region, through the Northern tier of the Gulf States. After that, our main wave responsible for-what-will-be our coastal storm, will race through Texas, into the Southeast, then up the Appalachians; giving us another round of heavy rain and embedded severe weather.
On Monday we begin looking at the coast to see where the energy transfer happens, where cold air is, and how heavy the precip will be. This is actually the most important part of the formula since we are dealing with a limited amount of cold air. Along with placement of our low pressure, heavier precip will help cool the atmosphere down fast and allow for a quicker changeover to snow. If low pressure has a problem getting out of the gate and is tucked too far into the coast, our big cities will see much more rain than snow (if any at all).
For this reason, we continue to think that interior areas of the Northeast, specifically the Catskills and Lower Hudson Valley, will see the best chance for being in the “jackpot” as far as heavy snow. Whereas as the big cities at this point in the game, have both the chance for an upside AND a downside surprise. Regardless, this remains a 6-12″+ snow event due to the short duration of our storm. This thing is on the move and doesn’t look to hang up anywhere, so while the snow will be heavy for whoever sees it, it won’t be around long enough to do an 18-24″ dumping.
Here is your local NYC Metro Forecast –
SATELLITE
We have a beautiful and mild day today, almost making it hard to imagine we could get some snow onTuesday. We’ll have sun and clouds with highs 55-60. Look for more of a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow, but we cool off a bit into the near 50 range.
WEATHER RADAR
Clouds increase on Monday, but I think we remain dry for most of the day. Highs 45-50, then getting colder overnight. Light precip moves in overnight and I think we start off with some rain, possibly mixing with snow.
On Tuesday, cold rain changes to mix, then possibly all snow before coming to an end. When this changeover takes place will determine how much the NYC area gets. As of this moment and 3.5 days out, it is simply too early to make that call. Highs near 40 early, then dropping as the backside of our system pulls cold air down from New England.
Sunshine and a breeze return on Wednesday, and it’ll be a cold one in the mid to upper 30’s.
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