EVENING SHORT RANGE MODELS PAINT SNOWY NYC SCENARIO
EVENING SHORT RANGE MODELS PAINT SNOWY NYC SCENARIO
EVENING SHORT RANGE MODELS PAINT SNOWY NYC SCENARIO – Good evening everyone. If you’ve been paying attention to the weather at all, you’ll notice we still have some annoyances left over from Friday’s Nor’Easter, plus the internet is blowing up with the prospects of a second punch in the nose.
Our latest evening model runs, the “18Z” as people like to call it, continue to have slight variations versus one another. Our GFS model tucks an intensifying low pressure system close into the coast and just south of Long Island. This scenario would give us a rain changing to a mix/snow, possibly back to rain-type of event.
However, our latest short-range NAM model, has an almost all snow event, and a heavy one at that, for the New York City and Long Island area. The low’s proximity off of the coast, plus a fast transfer of energy from the primary low, would give us the perfect ingredients for a 6-12+” type event in a small, compact area.
We are still several days out and there is lots of time for things to change. At this very moment, there is one thing models do agree on – a small, compact system, a quick departure compared to what we are dealing with now, and most of the action Wednesday afternoon into the night.
Stay tuned as we fine tune this forecast and follow how this system is trending as far as path, timing, and final atmospheric conditions favorable or hostile towards snow.
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