FIRST MEASURABLE PLOWABLE NYC SNOW POSSIBLE

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FIRST MEASURABLE PLOWABLE NYC SNOW POSSIBLE

FIRST MEASURABLE PLOWABLE NYC SNOW POSSIBLE

FIRST MEASURABLE PLOWABLE NYC SNOW POSSIBLE – Good evening everyone. As said in prior articles, I stated that the best view we’d get for what may happen on Saturday, would be on Thursday evening. Well, here we are and things are evolving in an interesting fashion.

The chance of snow has increased with models trending moisture further north and west, as well as a low pressure system that could be more vigorous and moisture laden. One of the things that concerned me, was the chance for a “surprise” in terms of something beyond a “cheap thrill”, which was also discussed. Luckily we were on it and it won’t be much of a surprise, but it’ll still be an eye opener considering many meteorologist wrote this system off even up till yesterday.

At this moment, both the NAM and GFS are in agreement that low pressure will be closer, stronger, and an upper air disturbance will be more of an influence than previously thought. What this means for us, is the chance of higher amounts, possibly advisory level or maybe even a touch higher. There is still a concern on my end for some mixing possible, which I discuss below. Remember, this low is coming from down South, so the low is rather “warm” compared to other types of systems we get.

Questions about mixing and where the “sweet spot” is

NWS’ latest snowfall maps show my concerns, especially on the east end of Long Island. We’ll probably also start out as a wet snow, then gradually turn to a drier and fluffier type of snow as we get into the evening. Here are my early estimates given the new information at hand –

NYC area – 1 to 4″

Nassau County – 2 to 5″

Suffolk County – 4 to 6″

Extreme eastern suffolk – 2-3″ (higher if mixing does not occur)

We will continue to update as we fine tune the timing, strength, path, and what to expect from this system.

You can also check all of the snow fall forecasts from Virginia to New England from JOESTRADAMUS!

 

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