Florida Tropical Activity Gives NYC A Nice Break
06/11/24 8:34am ET
Good morning everyone. We have a beautiful 5-7 day stretch in the Northeast, courtesy of a stationary front draped across Central Florida, and tropical energy riding along it. High pressure dominates until it moves offshore and gives the Northeast a very humid and warm/hot return late week. However, a reinforcing shot of less humid air will provide the area with a pleasantly warm & dry weekend.
Florida remains the focus of the forecast, with heavy showers and thunderstorms starting 12-24hrs early as the tropical setup was quick to get going. Our stalled out front got to Florida early, with tropical moisture getting brought up from Cuba before the front got to its stall-point. There’s good news and bad news in this.
We’ll start with the bad news first, with flood watches already posted for all of South and Southwest Florida; plus the Florida Keys. Copious amounts of rain and flash flooding is likely in these areas. In some cases, especially in Southwest Florida, rain totals could be on the level that hurricanes or tropical storms bring.
6-10 inches of rain is possible in areas that haven’t received much of it; so while it seems “much needed”, too much too soon creates a major flooding problem since the ground is too dry and can’t absorb it fast enough. This type of setup, with slow moving tropical moisture combined with a stalled out front, could make conditions ripe for record-breaking amounts of rain.
The good news (for Florida) is that an earlier start makes for an earlier exit. Tropical moisture will inundate Florida over the next several days, but it could’ve gone longer. It looks as if everything shifts west into the Gulf, leaving Florida with more of the typical-variety storms later in the weekend and into next week; while we begin to focus as to where this energy goes and does it strengthen past its wave-status. As of now, it remains possible that we could see a tropical depression or tropical storm.
We will be watching the Gulf Coast closely, from the Florida Panhandle, over to Louisiana, and into Texas. Here is your local NYC Metro forecast –
SATELLITE
Look for a mix of sun and clouds today, with a pleasantly mild day. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70’s, then we begin the warmup tomorrow. Sunshine remains tomorrow with highs in the low 80’s across much of the area.
WEATHER RADAR
Humidity and heat increase on Thursday, with more sunshine and highs in the upper 80’s. We go very warm to hot on Friday, with sunshine for most of the day, and highs in the upper 80’s to low 90’s. There’s a chance of a few PM storms as a week cold front passes by.
Our weekend looks perfect, with full sunshine and highs in the low 80’s each day.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.