Fourth NYC Heatwave Could Materialize Mid August If Tropical Moisture Affects Jet Stream
Good morning everyone. Heat has been the big story so far this summer as a it has given us a well above average season so far temp-wise. That story continues and another develops with the tropics getting busy. While nothing major is expected up here in terms of hurricanes in the near range, our hot pattern and tropical moisture may join forces to extend the heat.
SATELLITE
Yesterday’s cold front is dragging it’s ass and taking time getting past the entire area today, with clouds hanging around the Forks and SE New England Coast for a few more hours. Other than that, expect a dry day with more sun than clouds and highs a relatively drier than yesterday 90-95.
Tomorrow will be another very warm to hot and dry one, under mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80’s to low 90’s. There’s a slight chance of a PM storm, but most of the scattered action will be inland. Any stray storm will be capable of small hail, torrential rain, and gusty winds.
REGIONAL RADAR
We’ll go for a repeat on Friday, with mostly sunny skies, the slight chance of a storm, and more upper 80’s to low 90’s.
Saturday will be slightly drier in terms of a lack of storms, but we’ll slowly start dialing up the humidity as the day wears on. Expect more upper 80’s to low 90’s, and a more humid Sunday with the same temp range.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
In the long range, a possible 3rd heatwave remains a viable scenario within the time range of August 6-10. Tropical moisture east of the Leewards that’ll become tropical storm Isaias may affect or hinder the beginning of that possible uptick in temps, but it also may kink the jet stream enough to change the outcome of our long range.
In years past, we’ve learned that strong tropical cyclones can change whole patterns for the rest of the season when they go into the higher latitudes. Weaker systems can also do the same for a more localized and shorter range of time. If the remnants of Isaias rides around the ridge and up/just inland of the east coast, it should allow the 3rd heatwave (or near-heatwave) to still happen. It could also notch the jet stream just enough to cancel out some cool relief expected mid month, causing another ridge to form.
If this happens, we could be setting ourselves up for a 4th heatwave, something I haven’t seen or don’t remember seeing since childhood. While we haven’t seen extreme temps as far as 100+ with these heatwaves, this is turning out to be a very hot summer similar to the ones we used to see in the 70’s and 80’s.
1998 is the benchmark for me and my era in terms of extended heat, extreme heat, and the warmest water I’ve seen up here. We are not there and won’t get there, but we are running very parallel to it, just a slightly lower path in terms of temps.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.