HURRICANE FLORENCE SCENARIOS
Good morning everyone. While we enjoy our first sustained cool shot in New York City, the celebration is somewhat tainted with the thoughts of Hurricane Florence (Tropical Storm Florence for now) and what she may do.
Since it’s Friday, I’ll do a quick weekend forecast, then get into the tropics below. Cloudy skies and widely scattered light rain will be on the menu for today. Not everyone will see the rain, but for those who do it’ll be very light and mostly in the morning. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70’s.
For the weekend, tomorrow is looking like the driest and “warmest” of the two days. Variable clouds stick around and we hang out in the mid 70’s. For Sunday, we slowly work our way into Gordon’s remnants, with lowering and thickening clouds, a brisk NE wind, the slight chance of showers, and highs near 70.
“Gordon” arrives on Monday with the help of a frontal system. Expect a period of steady rain, humid, breezy, and highs in the mid 70’s. Very warm weather looks to return after Gordon leaves, with highs possibly in the mid to upper 80’s through the rest of the week. However, as we go deeper into the week towards the weekend, it’ll all hang on what Hurricane Florence does.
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE
As of now, Hurricane Florence has weakened into a tropical storm due to the shear it is encountering. When Florence was just a seedling, I discussed how it would likely become the strongest hurricane we’ve seen this season thus far, but it’s very rare for storms that far out to make the entire transit intact. This is what we’re seeing unfold as we speak. It is a long journey, and it still has a long way to go. That being said, models are starting to hone in on issues for the east coast; so unless anything changes, I will give you a preview on what to expect if the “what if” happens.
GFS AND EURO IN DISAGREEMENT
The GFS and EURO remain in disagreement and again, we have a LONG way to go. There will be more disagreements and more changes as Florence writes her story. As of now, I still think Sunday will give our clearest picture on who has to prepare and who can enjoy a sigh of relief. However, I’m going to play these two scenarios out so you can see what it would look like.
The EURO has a strong Category 2/3 Hurricane going right over the Myrtle Beach, SC area, then into the Appalachians on a curve to the north. We all know what comes with a landfalling hurricane and the dangers involved, so we won’t even get into that. For the New York City, it would mean nothing aside from the chance of some gusty rain squalls from the remnants and outer bands. For inland areas, widespread dangerous flooding and mudslides would be a tremendous issue as the upslope would wring out all of the moisture.
The GFS takes a more ominous route; into the Outer Banks as a Category 3, then into the Chesapeake before going just inland. The Chesapeake area could sustain a bad storm surge and all of the things that come with a strong, landfalling hurricane. As for us here in New York City/Long Island, we would see Irene-like action, but possibly heavier rain. This track would give us Tropical Storm force winds, and we wouldn’t be out of the woods surge-wise. Would it be like a Sandy-type surge? No, but with us coming off of a new moon a few days prior could help enhance the high tide and be an issue for us. IF this track played out, you’d have to ask yourself “did I get water during Irene?’. If you did, then you may have issues. If you didn’t, then surge may not be an issue.
Again, these are hypotheticals according to today’s models; it’s simply meant to paint a picture IF something like this were to play out. We could get something worse, better, or nothing at all. We still have long way to go and as I said, Sunday will give us the best picture.
*Please consult your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov for the latest information on any tropical storms or hurricanes that could be a threat to your area. Consult your local government officials regarding action you may need to take to secure life and property. Maps shown on here SHOULD NOT be used for decision making.