NYC SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE HURRICANE FLORENCE UPDATE
Good afternoon everyone. We have reached 90 once again in many areas of New York City and as expected, a broken line of storms is started to form and drift our way slowly. Also, Hurricane Florence remains in the news with models continuing to vary and change from run to run.
Strong Storms Beginning to Build
The area circled is my main concern as far as what may generate action for the NYC area. A wave-like feature moving east from western PA will help enhance the thunderstorm activity for NJ, NYC, and Long Island. Don’t be surprised if we see it reach mature stage, weaken, and regenerate as it keeps running into more energy and more hot, humid air. We’ll be keeping a close eye as it progresses and the main threat remains damaging winds, frequent lightning, torrential rain, and possibly some hail. For the rest of your end-of-week/weekend forecast, you can click here to see this morning’s discussion. Florence details are below.
As far as Hurricane Florence is concerned, I’m not going to be posting any scary 12z model updates and photos. We have a very long way to go and there will be changes as we are still 7-9 days out should Florence threaten the east coast.
Right now Florence has weakened into a category 2 hurricane with top sustained winds at 105mph. This weakening is due to wind shear it’s encountering along the way and it should bounce back strength-wise when things settle down atmospherically. Bermuda remains our #1 concern at this very moment since theres a decent chance for a close pass.
What it does after Bermuda remains in the hands of high pressure that’ll drift across lower Canada and an approaching frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley/Northeast. Timing, speed, strength of Florence, strength of our high pressure, and strength of our frontal boundary will all play a part in where she goes. This is why it’s important to remember that these tiny nuances can’t be seen this far out and we need to be patient and give it some time.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY