Weather in 5/Joe & Joe Weather Show Latest Podcast
Hurricane Henri’s Montauk Brush Actual Landfall Expected CT/RI
Good early morning everyone. The squeeze is on and Hurricane Henri looks like silly putty as the steering mechanism try and pull it westward as it continues northward. There won’t be many changes anymore, but there are a couple of surprises as each hurricane or tropical storm tend to do that near or upon landfall. As far as path, this one really wasn’t a shocker as models trended throughout the days toward the idea of a Hamptons – CT/RI window for landfall. With a CT/RI landfall expected now, some things change, some do not.
SATELLITE
One thing that does not change, is the storm surge expected in Long Island sound, specifically in the NYC area. The reason why I’m focusing on the NYC area, is because people will let their guard down thinking there are no issues if Henri is so far east. This is not the case and a 3-5ft storm surge is expected in the next few hours throughout the entire sound. Low lying areas in the NYC sound area need to take notice, and this will cause some flooding, especially in spots such as City Island, Orchard Beach, Flushing Bay, etc.
We also have some issues in specific south facing shores, and it’ll be a very close call for flooding in areas such as Gerritsen, Broad Channel, and Far Rockaway with a 1-3ft surge. Homes directly on the water need to take note for this morning’s high tide cycle.
For Long Island, those directly on the water and areas prone to flooding during a bad Nor’Easter need to take note also. Towns such as Long Beach, Island Park, Baldwin, Freeport, S Bellmore, S Merrick, Wanyagh, Seaford, Lindenhurst, and others, need to be on the lookout for minor-moderate coastal flooding.
Just as the City, the north shore of Long Island will take a hit with the incoming surge, including Bayville, Greenport, and some low lying roads; especially the road connecting Orient Pt. to the rest of the N. Fork.
WEATHER RADAR
Rain and wind is the next subject, with the biggest trick up Henri’s sleeve being the rain. Our steering mechanism which helped Henri come close in the first place, is stealing some of Henri’s energy, and really enhancing the rainfall fall away from Henri. Flooding rains hit NYC and Nassau County last night, setting up shop in Central NJ and eastern PA this morning. This is going to be an issue throughout the day as this arm of energy just meanders through the area, and not pushing out till Henri makes an exit. Wherever this arm drifts, expect torrential, flooding rain.
Henri’s main rain bands and moisture is being stretched west as the center moves NNW. This will bring heavy rains to Suffolk, then Nassau, then eventually the NYC area combined with that arm of moisture. The best chance to see tropical storm force winds will be Suffolk County, but Nassau and NYC will get in on the action during the heaviest precip, with tropical storm force gusts expected.
Sustained tropical storm force winds will be able to push a fair amount of trees down, so expect some property damage, blocked roads, and/or power outages. Tropical storm force gusts for Nassau and NYC, will do enough to knock some trees down in localized spots. Expect some power outages as well because you only need 1 tree down in a bad spot to cause a big problem for many.
This is going to be a long duration event, with the big stories being the storm surge flooding in Long Island Sound, torrential rains that’ll cause widespread flash flooding, and then the power outages/down trees, especially out east.
Henri’s “best case” scenario played out for NYC, but a best case scenario for one, is a worst case scenario for someone else. Stay safe everyone and use common sense today and overnight. The city may not get the worst of this, but there are still issues.
Pray for my grapes on the North Fork.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.