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Jury Remains Out on NYC Snow Midweek
Good morning everyone. We continue to watch a very potent storm system race into central New York and up into New England. Meanwhile, a sweeping cold front is bringing embedded severe weather across Virginia and parts of the Mid-Atlantic; while heavy rain and wind trail down into the Southeast.
This storm system will be responsible for some very cold air digging into the Northeast, Ohio River Valley, down into the Mid-Atlantic, and even into the Southeast. That will set the stage for our next storm system mid-week, and this one could be a blockbuster snow-wise for areas of Virginia, Maryland, and Delware. While the jury remains out in regards to heavy snow and wind for New York, Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, and up into New England, the likelihood of a fairly significant snowstorm is increasing for the Mid-Atlantic.
Low pressure will come out of the Rockies and dig deep into Texas, then across the Gulf States. As it does, we’ll see that system tap the Gulf moisture and energy, throwing moderate to heavy snows back into parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. In the warm quadrant of our system, we could see a severe weather outbreak for parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama; especially closer to the Gulf Shore. Look for the risk of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes as low pressure gets going and that contrast of air becomes more fierce.
After that, the jet stream will pick up our system and turn it up the East Coast. We’ll see how far north it can go before getting pushed out to sea, but at minimum I think we’re looking at a heavy snow event for eastern and northern Virginia, central and eastern Maryland, and Delaware. We could also see accumulating snow digging down into upper and extreme northeast North Carolina, and also a moderate to heavy dose of snow in southern New Jersey.
We’ll also watch closely for the wind aspect as low pressure deepens with the help of the Atlantic Ocean and that turning mechanism of the jet stream northward. If low pressure is deep enough, we could see parameters reach or approach Blizzard criteria when combined with heavy snow and low visibility. Maximum snowfall amounts so far look to be in the 1ft+ range depending on how long low pressure sticks around.
The timeline on this remains late Wednesday into Thursday before everything heads out to see late Thursday. We’ll also keep an eye on the New York City metro area and Long Island to see if our storm nudges a bit further north. If it does, we could see heavy snows blanket the region.
Here is your local NYC Metro forecast –
SATELLITE
Look for rainy and windy conditions till late afternoon, with even a few rumbles of thunder possible. Highs in the upper 40’s to near 50.
WEATHER RADAR
We’ll have sunny and windy/breezy conditions tomorrow and Tuesday, with highs near 30. Wednesday starts off with some sunshine, then increasing clouds late and the chance of some snow overnight. Highs near 30 again.
It’ll certainly be cold enough for snow and accumulating snow on Thursday with highs 25-30, but we have to see how far north our system gets. At minimum, look for 1-3″ of snow possible unless we see a big change in the path. If that happens, we could see looking at something entirely different as far as snow amounts.
Windy and cold conditions are likely on Friday with near 30 temps.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.