Latest GFS Model Run Shifts Northeast Snow Southward
02/08/2024 11:37am
Good morning everyone. We continue to watch the ever-changing models for our sizable storm expected from the Gulf States into the Northeast and/or Mid-Atlantic. There’s nothing out of the ordinary here as things will shift back and forth in terms of location and strength as we go on.
The biggest takeaway throughout this period as we hone in on our forecast, is that we know something is afoot, and we can at minimum discuss the genesis & first chapter in our system. Beyond that, we’ll have to wait a few days to see how this trends for the Northeast, New England, and Mid-Atlantic. As for today, our latest GFS model run shows our system coming out of the Rockies, tapping the Gulf moisture , then heading up the Appalachians. After that step, it’s all a guess for now, and anyone who says otherwise, is lying. We do know that an energy transfer will take place at the coast as high pressure tries to build in.
It’ll be a race to the finish line as far as placement of the low, placement of high pressure, and how strong our high is. However, our 12Z 02/08 GFS run has this transfer at the Mid-Atlantic coast, and high pressure compressing things more south. If this scenario played out as shown right now, that would translate to heavy snows experienced across the northern tier of the Mid-Atlantic, and lower parts of the Northeast. Areas such as southern NJ, SE PA, and DC would see some heavier snows. This also continues to look like a system capable of a general 6-12″+ drop of snow near the coast unless things slow down and grind to a halt.
What we do know now for sure, is that areas such as the Texas Panhandle and southwest Oklahoma, will see a quick period of heavy snow. The storm itself will still be in the “infant” stage, but we could see 3-6/5-10″ type snowfalls in this area. We’ll also watch closely for the prospect of more heavy rain and embedded severe weather along the Gulf and Southeast as our system trudges east and strengthens.
As far as timelines, we’re still on schedule for late Saturday/Sunday through Wednesday from west to east for this shindig. Here is your local forecast –
SATELLITE
Sunshine continues today with milder temps and lighter winds. We’re expecting highs in the upper 40’s to near 50. Clouds begin to return tomorrow with some sunshine mixed in. We’ll go a touch milder for a comfortable day in the low 50’s.
WEATHER RADAR
Clouds will lower and thicken Saturday with the slight chance of a shower. Regardless of the clouds, we’ll head into the mid 50’s. Some blue breaks return for Sunday, but temps drop off slightly back to the low 50’s.
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