Long Range Forecast Shows Possible Tropical Development

Long Range Forecast Shows Possible Tropical Development

Good morning everyone. We continue our very seasonable and somewhat pleasant start to June in the Northeast. Clouds and moisture begin to creep back in today, as we have morning clouds in fog throughout the Tri-State area. This is our next system approaching which brought severe weather to the Midwest. We won’t have anything on that level, but we could see a nocturnal cluster of heavy storms push through parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York late overnight tonight. Other than that, we return to quiet upper 70’s to low 80’s Friday and beyond.

I was really looking forward to giving everyone in the Midwest and South some good news as far as a break in the severe weather, flooding, and tornadic activity, but it looks like it simply doesn’t last; and for alternate reasons at that. June is a strange month when it comes to the tropics and is the official start to the tropical season. This is because June is a lot like October and November in the sense that old fronts and energy get hung up in the lower Gulf & Caribbean. While we don’t have the same energy to work with compared to October and November, the waters are just warm enough to help develop and sustain a tropical system for short durations.

Unfortunately, we’ll be watching the Gulf and Caribbean for this scenario early to mid next week in order to see if an old front will spawn or combine with a tropical wave; then send it northward into the Gulf. While it’s simply too early to tell if we are looking at anything of consequence here, it’s important to watch this scenario closely to see if anything develops. It is extremely rare to get a destructive hurricane in June, but a land-falling tropical depression or tropical storm, could do a lot of damage simply because of all of the rain we’ve already had in these areas.

From the Florida Keys, the west coast of Florida, to the Panhandle and the rest of the Gulf Coast, including Louisiana & Texas, we will continue to watch closely and see if anything unfolds from it. Stay tuned and we will update as needed. Here is your local NYC Metro forecast –

SATELLITE

storm free

Look for AM fog and low clouds, then some blue patches here and there. We remain seasonably warm and in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Overnight, a cluster of heavy showers and storms looks to develop and head over the NYC & Long Island area. Expect torrential rain, frequent lightning, and possibly some gusty winds.

WEATHER RADAR

Cloudy & showery conditions continue tomorrow with highs still near 80 and humid. We should clear out on Friday for some sunshine and more low 80’s.

storm free

The weekend has improved a bit, and we scrap the afternoon shower for Saturday and keep it for Sunday. Expect a mix of sun & clouds both days, with highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s for more seasonable weather.

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Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.