MANHATTAN BRONX SNOW COASTAL MIXING ISSUES
MANHATTAN BRONX SNOW COASTAL MIXING ISSUES
MANHATTAN BRONX SNOW COASTAL MIXING ISSUES – Good morning everyone. An already complicated forecast has become even more complicated as our question about whether a wave develops or not is answered; it develops, but “too close” instead of too far.
Add into the mix, cold air that modified much quicker than expected, and you have yourself a blown forecast of some sorts. Luckily we’re on it before it happens so we’re not asking ourselves “where did all of the snow go?”.
Now for the complicated part. Today will be cloudy and raw all day with no precip, highs in the mid 30’s with a damp east wind. Overnight in Manhattan on north, snow will begin after midnight. For areas south and east of Manhattan, precip starts out as snow, then a mix of rain and snow as this compact wave develops and brings in slightly warmer air.
Unless anything changes with the rain/snow line, it looks to be all snow for Manhattan and the Bronx. Any snow that turned into a mix, should change back to snow before ending in parts of Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, and Long Island.
Areas that do see a mix, should still see their 1-3 inches of snow (slush), but it’ll come in piece-meal and will be hard to measure as what initially falls, melts, then has a hard time accumulating on the wet surfaces. As far as Manhattan is concerned, if the rain/snow line stays steady, look for 2-4” of snow, and 2-4” with possibly locally higher amounts in the Bronx.
This is an extremely tricky forecast and confidence is low that it even winds up this way. If the wave develops 5-10 miles further west, Manhattan and the Bronx will be in the same boat as us, and virtually no snow for the rest of NYC/LI. If it doesn’t develop at all or develops further east, the rain/snow line changes and we could all see a general 1-3” with no mix.
So instead of a forecast, this has become a “nowcast” and we have to watch how it all unfolds. I think Someone is in for a surprise, but it might not be the surprise you want or the surprise expected.
I think we’ll have a mix for many between a cheap thrill, slushy thrill, and “where’s my snow?” disappointment.
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