MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY NYC STORM DISCUSSION
MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY NYC STORM DISCUSSION
MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY NYC STORM DISCUSSION – Good late morning everyone! Before we go any further, this post is strictly in regards to Monday night and Tuesday’s expected Nor’Easter, so if you’d like to check out today’s forecast, you can check it out here.
With the newest GFS run, the models are starting to diverge as far as paths. All are in agreement that we will be seeing a major storm in the area, but the final path will be important in terms of what we see. That being said, regardless of what type of precip we do get, this will still be considered a major system.
Both the Canadian and EURO are holding onto the idea for now that our system will be taking path #1. This would make for a mostly all snow event and the potential for someone in the NE corridor seeing 1-2ft of snow and localized areas upwards of 3ft.
The GFS has been progressing towards path #2. This would give the NYC area a very heavy snow to very heavy rain scenario. This would give the area the possibility of a 4-8/6-12″ of snow type situation before changing to very heavy rain. Heavy snow to heavy rain is not such a great situation, as it can cause havoc in terms of street flooding and make cleanup difficult when everything freezes into a hard crust overnight Tuesday.
The last is the dotted line. I put this up as the GFS trend. If the GFS continues to trend inland, we could see this type of scenario. A strong low pressure taking this route, would give us either snow quickly changing to rain, or an all rain event; maybe even some rumbles of thunder, with heavy rain and localized street flooding in poor drainage area.
While it’s important to follow the developing situation, it’s also important to be reminded that it is still too early to determine exactly which scenario will play out. Time will tell and we will give you the most accurate forecast possible. Stay tuned!
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