MORNING GFS MODEL HOLDS ONTO NYC MONDAY SNOW

MORNING GFS MODEL HOLDS ONTO NYC MONDAY SNOW

MORNING GFS MODEL HOLDS ONTO NYC MONDAY SNOW

MORNING GFS MODEL HOLDS ONTO NYC MONDAY SNOW – Good morning everyone. The sun is out, our snow continues to melt, and we are enjoying a little break before the next potential system. Models continue to diverge from one another in some key ways, but we’ve seen this before countless times throughout the winter.

First and foremost, the sun is here but the breeze remains. It’ll be a beautiful but brisk day, with highs in the low to mid 40’s and a wintry wind chill at times due to winds gusting in the mid 20mph range. Overnight, look for the wind to calm down, and that should help us propel into a cool but comfortable day tomorrow. Mid 40’s will be on the menu again, with sunny skies and light winds.

Tomorrow night, clouds begin to slowly increase with the approach of two systems – one to our northwest and one from the south. Even two days out, models are in mass disagreement on what we’re looking at. At this very moment, I don’t think we’re looking at anything major, but there are two scenarios I have in mind regardless of the models.

The first one is the one I spoke about in the very beginning a few days ago. This would be the glancing brush, where we find ourselves on the northern fringe of a departing, but strong low pressure system. This scenario could throw some light snow into the area, or give us a very cloudy, cold, windy, and damp day/night for Monday and/or Tuesday. As of this moment, our GFS model is holding onto this idea run after run.

We have to continue to keep an eye on everything, because the NAM has a different idea. Recently, the NAM has been our most reliable short-range model, but it is not without its flaws. Our last storm, the NAM at the last minute, snapped towards the GFS idea of a very close approaching low, but maintained the NAM cold idea. This ended up being right, but we have to keep an eye on that jog to the GFS idea.

So as of now, the NAM has no phasing with the upper air energy from Canada, and has low pressure from the Southeast scooting out to sea. This is not without its issues either, because a low scooting out to sea could help keep colder air in our area as the upper air energy sinks down from Canada. This could give us a period of rain, snow, or a mix. Think of it almost like a late winter clipper-type system.

These are the two ideas on the table as of this very moment. I think tomorrow morning will give us our best picture of what will happen, with no surprises thereafter. In the meantime, relatively cool air looks to stick around till at least late week next week.

Stay tuned!

 

 

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