NYC NOREASTER NUMBER THREE TAKES STEP TOWARDS REALITY
NYC NOREASTER NUMBER THREE TAKES STEP TOWARDS REALITY
NYC NOREASTER NUMBER THREE TAKES STEP TOWARDS REALITY – Good afternoon everyone. My morning forecast was only a couple of hours old when my words became somewhat prophetic about keeping a close eye on our NAM model because of what it did last time around. Well, it’s done it again and now things have become a little bit more interesting.
During this afternoon’s model run, the NAM decided to go with our GFS model’s idea of a late-phasing storm between upper level energy coming down from Canada, and low pressure emerging from the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, the GFS continues the idea, but shifts more westward, possibly enhancing our precip to more than just a brush.
What this means for us right now is two-fold. First, we now have a pretty good chance of the two systems phasing since models are starting to agree with this notion. Whether it is an early phase (closer to shore) or a late phase (further from shore) at this point, we have a better chance of seeing precip and wind, both of which we don’t need right now.
We have a long way to go any many questions remain. If the GFS continues to trend west and things don’t hold onto the current idea, it could mean more rain, mix, and periods of snow for us. If it holds and stays where it is, we could be looking at a 4-8/6-12″ type system in the region with heavy wet snow and possible blizzard like conditions.
If the current NAM remains the same, then we are back to the GFS’s original idea of a glancing blow with light snow, possibly moderate the further east you go. (Forks of Long Island, Cape Cod, etc.)
Stay tuned, but it’s safe to say that things have gotten more interesting, more complicated, and my job is once again Advil and whiskey worthy.
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