NYC SNOW EXPECTED COURTESY OF NOREASTER NUMBER THREE
NYC SNOW EXPECTED COURTESY OF NOREASTER NUMBER THREE
NYC SNOW EXPECTED COURTESY OF NOREASTER NUMBER THREE – Good morning everyone. I know people were anxiously awaiting this morning’s forecast to have their answers questioned about “if”, timing, and how much does New York City get in regards to snow with Nor’easter #3; and some of those questions can be answered, but others do remain.
First, we have a beautiful day ahead, with sunny skies, highs in a cool low to mid 40’s and a light breeze. We remain clear tonight, then increasing clouds tomorrow morning with our approaching Nor’easter. Highs tomorrow will again be in the low to mid 40’s, and any light precip that may get here by afternoon/evening, will be a rain or mix to start. I’ll get into the remainder of the timeline down below.
Overnight, models became in agreement about a hybrid between the original GFS idea (a few days ago) of a semi-brushing, but the NAM’s idea of a stronger system. This morning takes it a step further, where primary low pressure gets an early start, but strengthening occurs late. With late strengthening this time of year, comes cold air issues as far as keeping everything snow, even if we find ourselves in a situation where we are on the northern fringe of precip. This might hold down amounts for areas of New York City and Long Island to start. Also, when we find ourselves on the edge of this precip field, we start asking ourselves, “where is the cutoff?”
Initial Snow Map
So I think we start off with some rain and mixing late Monday. Then, as the storm begins to spool up and head to our southeast, then east, colder air will work in and change everything to snow by midnight. There will be a delay on when sticking to the ground starts (grass, trees, and colder surfaces will be first), but it should get heavy enough to start covering at least secondary/untreated roads.
Snow continues overnight Tuesday, then tapers off in the afternoon as a mix again. This time of year and without the perfect ingredients, a slow down in precip generally allows the atmosphere to warm up slightly again, causing the mix/rain at the end. Regardless of what we get, winds will be an issue again with the soft ground and weakened trees, so power outages and downed trees will be a risk again for the entire area.
Confidence on my snow map is low to moderate as of this moment for several reasons. First and foremost, we have to see where the northern/western edge of the precipitation field sets up. Then you have the initial mixing issues, and to add complications, you don’t want the system to trend much more west, even though you’d think that’ll give the area more snow.
A trend more westward would bring us more mixing and even the chance the east end of Long Island sees a lot of rain before ending as a burst of heavy snow. This could keep the totals down in the area and raise them in others, so we will be watching for all of these issues for you and fine tune the forecast as we go on.
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