NYC NOREASTER SNOWFALL AFTERNOON DISCUSSION
NYC NOREASTER SNOWFALL AFTERNOON DISCUSSION
NYC NOREASTER SNOWFALL AFTERNOON DISCUSSION – Good afternoon everyone. With afternoon models starting to drip in, our third possible Nor’easter in under 2 weeks has now become fact and not the things of fiction. Everything remains on schedule as far as timeline, but questions still remain as far as how much snowfall we get out of this.
Either way, our 3rd Nor’easter will be a major nuisance due to the damage the other two have done, and no chance for the ground to dry out. This will amount to more downed trees, more power outages, and more minor property damage to already weakened light structures. This time around, our low pressure will be further offshore, lessening the wind somewhat, but it won’t take much to finish the job in areas. Look for 20-30 mph winds possible, especially at the coast, and wind gusts to 40+ at times are not out of the question at the immediate coast either.
Initial Snow Map Holds On….for now.
As far as snowfall, my initial snow map remains unchanged for now. I still believe that rain/mixing will be an issue during the onset, especially at the coast and east end of Long Island. That being said, the east end of Long Island will be closer to the heavier convection, so it’s possible they can make up any deficit rather quickly once a changeover occurs. Also, how far west the precip shield goes is still questionable and we won’t know that until we have ourselves an actual system. This is where our forecast becomes a “nowcast”.
Add all of this into the fact that it’s March and this isn’t the Blizzard of 1888 with copious amounts of fast dropping snow, and we have ourselves a very complicated forecast in terms of final snow accumulations with melting in play. With a wet. relatively “warm” ground, we will need moderate to heavy snow to make things stick. We saw this play out in Manhattan and the outer boroughs in the last storm, with snow melting before it could be measured.
Stay tuned for any changes and be aware that whether we get Winter Storm Warnings or not, the other hazards are still in play due the barrage we’ve had the last few weeks.
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