NYC 2018 SUMMER START OUTLOOK

NYC 2018 SUMMER START OUTLOOK – Good morning everyone. I hope everyone had a great weekend and enjoyed the hot Monday. With the dust settling from our nice warm stretch and subsequent thunderstorms in some areas last night, we enter another transitional period for the region.

We have one more very warm today, and even though we have a cloudy start, look for the amount of sun to increase as the day goes on. A steady northerly flow will help keep humidity and dew points low, but we’ll still see mid to upper 80’s in most parts today.

For the rest of the week, the “old” pattern tries to return, which was discussed last week. However, it’s going to have a hard time pulling off the same exact results since we introduced some big heat into the area. With warmer water temps and generally warmer surface temps everywhere, that maritime effect could still flow, but not as strong.

A NNE flow remains in place for most of tomorrow, but we’re still able to pull off some low to mid 80’s with clouds and sun. Look for the same on Thursday, but with a touch more sun; mid 80’s. Low to mid 80’s under sunny skies for Friday again, and it’ll be generally comfortable.

For the weekend, low pressure will be taking its sweet time out of the Ohio/Mississippi Valley and heading to the northeast near the Great Lakes. The approach will give us clouds and sun on Saturday, with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Most of the energy at this point looks to want to go well to our north, so don’t expect any rainouts. Highs Saturday should be 75-80. As of now, the best chance of some rain will be Saturday as everything passes by. Look for morning clouds Sunday, then some late sunshine, highs in the mid to upper 80’s.

As stated before, the old pattern wants to make a comeback, but it’ll be fairly weak. Think of how bad Rocky V was after Rocky IV. So as we enter our last week of June, look for us to walk the line between the hot weather and maritime push. This will put us in line for some periods of clouds and showers. However, our “cooler” days will be upper 70’s to low 80’s (instead of 50’s last month), and look for a couple of hot days to sneak in there as well.

Breaking out the crystal ball for July, I think its very possible we see our first heatwave during the first 1/3 of the month; or at minimum, a good stretch of very warm, above average temps as the pattern drifting over us now, begins to break down again.