NYC COMPREHENSIVE NOVEMBER OUTLOOK

Good morning everyone and welcome to a special edition of our New York City coverage. After the immediate forecast, I’ll be going into what expect for the rest of November; which is growing much more active as we continue into the month.

EASTERN SATELLITE

First off, if you woke up this morning and disappointed that our wind machine hasn’t cranked up yet, don’t worry, it’s coming. We have to wait for the rest of our energy to pass, which will happen late morning.

REGIONAL RADAR

Look for one more round of showers that’ll be gone between 10am – 12pm and behind it, the wind will roar in. Expect partial clearing after that final round, temperatures dropping through the 50’s and into the upper 40’s, and sustained winds 15-25mph with gusts 45-50mph. This will be a big problem due to the saturated ground and leaves still on the trees. We could see some downed trees and power outages when all is said and done. It’ll remain breezy overnight and the NYC area will drop into the low 40’s; with 30’s in outlying areas.

Tomorrow remains looking very good. Sunny skies will dominate and light winds will help make it feel warmer than the mid 50’s we’ll achieve. However, clouds roll back in tomorrow night as we get ready for our next system.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

As of now, Monday’s system is looking piece-meal, with most of it’s energy going well north and west. However, high pressure to our north and east will help pump in maritime air as another piece of energy slips just to our south. This will give Monday a raw feel, with a damp east wind, cloudy skies, and the chance of some showers; highs in the low to mid 50’s.

Clouds stick around on Tuesday as a more potent system approaches, but again, most of the energy going to our north and west. Expect another round of showers, possibly a few rumbles of thunder, but most of the action will be well north; highs a front-related low 60’s.

For mid week, I’m a bit skeptical in terms of how warm we go with a departing system. Most outlets are calling for mid 60’s for Wednesday with westerlies helping to sink the air; but the wind will be rocking pretty well and generally don’t see the air heat up fast unless the wind is lighter. For now, I’m calling for sunny skies and near 60 unless I see anything different.

Late week, cooler air works back in and I’ll be watching closely for something much more vigorous for our entry into the weekend; possibly another coastal system or an inland-runner.

NOVEMBER LONG RANGE LOOKS ACTIVE

For our November, we’ll see a parade of systems every 3-5 days or so. The Gulf remains open in terms of systems being able to tap that extra energy, so look for the possibility of several chances at a Nor’Easter or inland-runner up the I95 corridor. I’m highly confident that we’ll see our first true lake effect snows this month, and we could get in on the action as far as seeing our first few flakes here in the NYC area.

Cool to Cold Air Behind Each System

Even with most of our systems tracking just to our west, the air behind each system will be progressively cooler/colder. While we’ve had early snows this time of year in the past, our pattern is not conducive for an early snowstorm. However, we are in a 70/30 mix in terms of seeing mostly cool air than warmer air; paving the way for a few flakes IF the relatively colder air is timed perfectly with any hypothetical moisture. Again, I feel that the first step will be the Great Lakes opening up the lake-effect snow machine with system departures.

It’s Not All Cold News, But An Active One

Once we get past our upcoming week, I’ll be looking closely for scenarios such as this. Primary lows will continue to head well to our west and north, but Gulf moisture is readily available. A system like this would break apart near the Ohio Valley, giving us little to no rain, as well as a 1-2 day shot of mild air.

The hypothetical system passes by but the Gulf wave remains. Cool air works into our area, and the Gulf low transfers to or near the coast, then heads up. This set-up could give interior areas of the Northeast their first heavy snows of the season.

So it’s not all cold news, and it’s not all warm news either; but it’s active news and November is looking very active. I think in the end, we are looking at your average to slightly below average November temp-wise, and above normal precip. The lake effect will give us our first show, inland areas will see their first heavy snowfall, down here we’ll see a few shots at another Nor’Easter, and we could squeeze out some flakes as well.

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley