NYC RELATIVE COLD BLAST COMING ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
Good morning everyone. New York CIty’s active pattern continues onward as rain is expected today and tomorrow. Then late week, yet another system will bring in some relatively cold air into the area, setting up the possibility of a period of heavy snow upstate, before the lake effect snow machine turns on.
We have a thick layer of low clouds over us, indicative of an approaching warm front. That east wind direction seals the deal as rain heads in shortly. Look for rain pretty much all day and highs in the low to mid 50’s. Overnight, rain will eventually come to an end as that warm front nears and we await the cold front due tomorrow. Ponding on roads is possible in notoriously poor drainage areas.
We’ll be in the “warm” sector tomorrow, but notice that means low to mid 60’s for us compared to similar setups last year that would’ve produced 75-80 degree temps. This is because cool air has invaded the lower 48 and this is about as high as we can go right now. So we’re slightly above normal, but no actual unseasonably warm air is available. Expect showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder tomorrow.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Wednesday is looking sunny and breezy, highs 55-60 and we should get another repeat Thursday before our next system heads in. For Friday, we watch for the possibility of a fairly vigorous coastal system, but not as strong as the last one. However, it will be capable of pulling down some unseasonably cool/cold air down into the region. Depending on the strength and timing, inland areas of NY and New England could see a round of some heavy snow before everything departs.
As of now, it looks as if everything is gone by Saturday morning, but left behind will be windy and cool conditions. Strong westerlies moving in, as well as cold air coming down from Canada, could speak off some lake effect snows on the eastern shores of Lake Ontario (NY) and Lake Eerie (NY/PA). We’ll wait on that to see the actual setup as we get closer. Meanwhile, that relatively cold air bleeds in for us by Sunday, with highs possibly only into the low to mid 40’s as highs.
For the week of November 12th, a reinforcing shot of cold air could keep 40’s as highs in our area for most of that week. Any system timed with that cold air (given the right path), could help us see some early flakes in the NYC metro area.