NYC First Snowstorm Of Season Ready To Go

 

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NYC First Snowstorm Of Season Ready To Go

Good morning everyone. We’re all set for our first significant snowfall of the season, and although we won’t be getting the heaviest amounts compared to other spots, it’ll still be more than enough to cause snow lovers to rejoice; or headaches for normal people. 😉

SATELLITE

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Red skies in the morning, sailors take warning, is the theme as we wake up. Sunshine will slowly fade away as clouds increase, and the cold air is locked in with highs in the low to mid 30’s. Light snow will begin some time between 3-5pm, and then increase in intensity as we go on.

REGIONAL RADAR

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Snow will be its heaviest overnight, and coastal sections remain the biggest question as far as how much mixing takes place, or if a complete changeover to rain happens before turning back to snow. We do know that some mixing may also occur in the NYC Metro area, and that is why the total amounts won’t be as intense as NW NJ, central and NE PA, and upstate NY.

THE SNOW MAP REMAINS UNCHANGED

I’m feeling very confident about the snow map generated early yesterday morning, so we’re going to keep it untouched. However, we’ll break down the NYC/Long Island region for you to better understand the nuances in play. I also kept the “bust zone” up, because this is where the biggest complications may occur if the system shifts as little as 10-15 to miles or any dry incursions occur.

For the most part, the NYC area is looking at 10-15″ of snow out of this. Look for the higher end of the spectrum if less mixing occurs, and the lower end of more mixing occurs. Northernmost areas of NYC may exceed 15″, especially if no mixing occurs.

The south shores of Brooklyn and Queens, specifically Coney Island and Rockaway, may possibly experience what the south shore of Long Island will experience. We’re going to put them at 5-10″ possible, with the lower end of the spectrum if a changeover occurs.

For Long Island, a general 6-12″ is expected across the Island. The northernmost areas of Nassau and Western Suffolk, may exceed 12″ if things set up right. Easternmost Suffolk, the Forks, and the south shore of Long Island, will most likely see 4-8″ out of this. Again, the more mixing or rain occurs, the lower the amounts. The less mixing occurs, we’ll go for the higher end of the spectrum.

The majority of these totals will occur BEFORE any possible changeovers occur. So while you’re asleep, you’ll get the majority of the snow, then the changeover will knock down or melt some of what had fallen. It’s possible in some spots, specifically the problem areas of Long Island, you may wake up tomorrow AM and not see the full amount that fell overnight.

Coastal NJ remains an issue, and we’ll be keeping an eye on the cold air and radar for them. NW NJ is looking like 12-18″, but 1-2ft likely in the higher elevations. The same goes for interior NY, Central & NE PA, with a general 12-18″ possible, then 1-2ft where the heaviest banding sets up.

Locally, everything changes back to snow tomorrow morning, and we could see another 1-3″, giving us the totals I discussed about. We’ll have partial clearing late, with highs in the low 30’s.

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
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Friday is sunny and cold with more low 30’s, and it’s going to be frigid overnight with lows in the upper teens. Sunshine continues for the weekend, and we’ll have mid 30’s Saturday, then near 40 temps Sunday.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.