NYC Flooding Severe Weather Issues Before Brief Temp Break
Good morning everyone. Our heatwave has officially ended due to cloud-cover, scattered precipitation, and a slow transition to drier/cooler air. We have a long way to go in this process and it won’t be your typical clean transition from hot and humid to cool and dry, but we will get a taste of some relief before the very warm temps return rather fast.
SATELLITE
As discussed a couple of days ago before my mini-vacation, our process would be piece-meal, with several areas of energy swinging by before we truly cool things off and dry things out. This morning is starting out quiet, with clouds and blue skies emerging from our sunrise.
It’ll be warm and humid today, but the dew points won’t be raging Florida-esque like they were the past few days. Regardless, we have plenty of juice and dynamics to work with today as our front is still way off to our west; and we’ll have the chance of showers and storms at any point in the day. That chance will increase as the day wears on, and we’ll be watching very closely to see if a wave develops just to our west ahead of the front. Highs today in the low to mid 80’s.
As far as the showers and storms are concerned, flooding could be an issue if our areas of precipitation run over the same area over and over again in a slow fashion. That’ll be our number 1 concern. Our secondary concern will be the prospect of severe weather. This all hangs on that wave which could develop ahead of our front. If this happens, we turn a slight chance of isolated severe cells, into something more widespread and likely. The biggest danger if this wave develops and survives the trip, will be strong winds and of course, that isolated tornado chance with the shear in the atmosphere.
We’ll be watching the radar closely from 4-5pm onward.
REGIONAL RADAR
We are not out of the woods rain-wise tomorrow, with plenty of leftover energy before we get a nice day on Wednesday. Tomorrow will be much cooler though as today and tonight’s action will help bust the warm air, then cloud cover and precipitation help make it hard for temps to recover tomorrow.
Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70’s, with cloudy skies and the constant threat of showers and storms blocking the sun’s ability during our heating hours. Precipitation wise, we’ll have a good shot at showers and storms till late morning/early afternoon, then the slight chance of some showers through late evening.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Neither Tuesday nor Wednesday will be clean, crisp, Halloween-like weather some models and social media were depicting; but with the rain gone, Wednesday will be nice regardless. For Wednesday, expect sunny skies with highs in the 80-85 realm and low humidity.
We bounce back fairly quickly and into the mid 80’s on Thursday with sunny skies, then we slowly dial up the heat and humidity Friday, onward. Expect mid to upper 80’s Friday, then very warm to hot and humid both Saturday and Sunday; with upper 80’s Saturday, and upper 80’s to low 90’s Sunday.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
In the long range, I discussed last week that this break would be very brief and that the signs were there that hot air could return late July into early August. The scenario I painted is emerging and it looks as if we could get another small heatwave or at least very close to those parameters next Sunday, onward for several days.
We’ll dial it in and get the timing down as we get closer. For now, we’ll focus on our severe weather and flooding concerns, then pivot after our brief break tomorrow and Wednesday.
Stay tuned.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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