NYC INTERMEDIATE RANGE OUTLOOK – Good morning great peoples of the NYC area! Today we await our first “cheap thrill” as my esteemed colleague likes to call it. Things are progressing slightly faster, which will keep the amount of accumulating snow to a minimum in our area. Scattered flakes will begin to enter the region early afternoon, becoming more widespread as we get into late evening, highs in the mid 30’s. Because of the relatively light nature of the precip upon it’s onset, and temps being above freezing, it will only stick to colder surfaces, such as cars, tree limbs, and grass. Temperatures will rise throughout the night and into the low 40’s by sunrise tomorrow. Any snow falling should turn to rain between 1-2am and will be washed away. However, we could see a trace to 1″ of snow in the area before the changeover, possibly 1-2″ in the Bronx if the changeover is delayed somewhat. Tomorrow will be a rainy commute, but everything should clear out by late morning/early afternoon, with highs near 50.

NWS Snow potential for the area. This one seems pretty accurate in my opinion, but we could see the 1-2″ line move south about 10-15 miles and into the Bronx given the right conditions and slightly slower changeover.

On Tuesday, the sun returns, but temps will drop into the low 40’s as we get ready for the next cold blast. An arctic cold front nears the area and passes by on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 30’s, and lows in low 20’s. Things get a little interesting Wednesday night, where will be watching a possible wave developing along the arctic front hung up in the southeast. We will have to wait and see what happens since the models are all in disagreement, however, this could end up being a close call in terms of a light to moderate snow event. Whichever way things go, arctic air hustles in on Thursday, with highs only in the upper 20’s and a frigid night in the mid 10’s. Friday doesn’t look to be much better, as we will only get to near 30 and upper 10’s to low 20’s at night. For Friday night into Sunday, we start watching our next system, which could give us a similar setup as today and a chance at some frozen precip with a stubborn pocket of cold air wedging in. This could mean a snow changing to rain type event, or possibly even some snow to freezing rain to rain depending on the final setup.

The reason why I’m doing an intermediate for now is because the week leading up to Christmas and Hanukkah is looking a bit funky. There are some signs that a ridge wants to build to our southwest, pumping in above normal temps for the holiday weekend, but I’ve seen a similar setup collapse 2 weeks ago for this week. So we’ll keep an eye on it and follow the changes as a more accurate picture presents itself.




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NYC INTERMEDIATE RANGE OUTLOOK – Moisture beginning to work it’s way in to our southwest, however, much of it is not reaching the ground yet aside from the area moving into Philly.
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