Good morning everyone. As I enjoyed my 2 day sabbatical from anything weather related, cool air arrived into the NYC area as expected, and the tropics became a little bit more active again as well. We have Subtropical Storm Leslie, what-was Tropical Storm Kirk now a depression, and a small tropical low in between Bermuda & the Southeast coast.

First off, we had more clouds than expected yesterday, and the rain didn’t hold off as far south as I would’ve liked. Clouds, spotty light rain, and drizzle held things in the 60’s yesterday. For today, that area of precip has finally sunk down to where it should’ve been, but the clouds will remain behind. Look for more clouds than sun, highs in the mid to upper 60’s and a steady easterly breeze.

Tomorrow, showers return as warm air tries to fight its way back; highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s with that easterly fetch going southeast ahead of the warm front. Between tomorrow and tomorrow night, we might actually squeeze out an inch or more of rain, especially in areas that see a few rumbles of thunder overnight tomorrow.

On Wednesday, we’re in the warm sector of things ahead of a fast moving cold front. We’ll have to see how high we go and that’ll all depend on how much sun we get. Regardless, it’ll be humid with highs 75-80 in most areas. Along the immediate coast, look for things to remain in the low 70’s, especially if clouds are stubborn. We’ll also have a decent shot at some showers and storms in the afternoon onward.

For the rest of the week, we clear out a bit rain-wise on Thursday and drop back into the 65-70 range; then introduce more clouds and showers overnight Thursday and Friday ahead of drier air pushing back in. As far as next weekend in concerned, for the moment we are looking sunny and seasonal. Expect dry and comfortable conditions, highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.

To start your October, we have to keep an eye on the prospect of any front-related warmth, but it all hangs on how far north that warm air can get, plus the pushback from a maritime airmass. For now, it’s looking like a seasonal start, then possibly slightly above normal for a few days before cool air pushes back in a big way.


storm free

Our tropics started to get active again after everything settled down with Florence. The last time we discussed anything, we shot down the prospect of Florence returning, but noted that a few features could become Kirk. Well, we have a 2 for 1 sale going on and a bonus feature as well.

Tropical Storm Kirk has met unfavorable conditions, knocking it back down to a depression. However, he continues marching east towards the Windwards and should gather enough to become at least a Tropical Storm again. Kirk is taking a southerly route, which is common this time of year and we’ll be watching it closely regardless of strength; especially due to fronts dipping lower this time of year. Bad timing could notch Kirk or the remnants of Kirk into the Gulf and create an issue. At the moment though, we are too far away to forecast anything like that and there is no immediate danger to anyone aside from the shipping lanes.

Subtropical Storm Leslie is big and wide, with a lot of dry air wrapped in her. She also poses no immediate danger other than to shipping, but will be giving Europe a wind, gale-like time when she races ENE eventually.

Our last feature is a small low pressure system from the old stalled front that helped kick Florence out. That front is long gone, but prevailing winds are helping push this low pressure towards the East Coast. Nothing big will come of it,  but it could help energize our approaching cold front for Wednesday; helping to enhance the rain along the coast before getting absorbed and kicked out.

So we have some features going on but no immediate dangers. The biggest story going on right now is how summer abruptly ended up here and seasonal, early fall weather arrived right on time for the first day of autumn.



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