Weather in 5/Joe & Joe Weather Show Latest Podcast
NYC Long Island Make Henri Preparations Now
Good morning everyone. Tropical Storm Henri continues to head towards Long Island and will impact the entire area with either Tropical Storm or Hurricane conditions depending on its final point of landfall. Everyone needs to prepare at this point, because any type of wobble west or east could make a difference in what you experience locally.
SATELLITE
As of this morning, the short range NAM model and GFS remain in disagreement as to where Henri makes landfall. The “best case” scenario would be that Henri follows the GFS and makes landfall between Montauk and western Rhode Island, but the NAM model or something in between seems more likely at this point.
STORM SURGE MAP
The latest storm surge map from NWS/NHC is up and the numbers have increased throughout the area. I discussed this was possible yesterday, with the 3-5ft surge area possible shifting west into the LI Sound, and the 2-4ft shifting west along the south shore of LI and into NYC.
To put things into perspective, these are similar to Hurricane Irene’s numbers. Irene’s storm surge at the Battery in Manhattan was 4.8ft. If you experienced Irene’s surge in the NYC area and south shore of LI and didn’t get flooding, most likely you will be ok. If you did experience flooding, be prepared that this is a possibility again. Areas such as Gerritsen, Broad Channel, Far Rockaway, Long Beach, Baldwin, Freeport, Wantagh, S. Bellmore, S. Merrick, Seaford, and Lindenhurst need to take caution. It’s going to be a close call for some.
For those in the Long Island Sound and areas too far to the east to see the full effects of Irene, then this will be a test to see how your area does, and you need to take direction from your local administrators. Areas such as Bayville will experience some surge flooding, Greenport as well, and I know Orient will be cut off from the rest of the island temporarily by the oyster ponds; but there are a lot more low lying areas I’m unfamiliar with.
High tides are between 8:30-9:30am tomorrow and between 9-10pm tomorrow night. The morning cycle will be the worst of the two, so if you escape flooding tomorrow morning, you’re most likely in good shape.
WEATHER RADAR
As far as timing of Henri overall, conditions will begin to deteriorate overnight and into early tomorrow morning. Regardless of whether Henri goes further east or wobbles west, all models are indicating that the meat and potatoes of the system will arrive between 8 and 11am, then continue into the afternoon/evening.
Any hurricane force winds will be short-lived and very localized as Henri weakens and expends, but tropical storm force winds will be felt everywhere. Expect copious amounts of rain, brief tornados, and damaging winds. Power outages are likely in many areas, as well as numerous downed trees. Expect minor to moderate damage to property in the warning areas.
The strongest winds and most damage will occur where Henri’s center makes landfall and to the east of that area. However, damaging winds will be possible to the west of the center as well.
The time to prepare is now. After Henri is all said and done, those not greatly affected will claim is was a “dud”. Please take note that just because you weren’t impacted locally, doesn’t mean others weren’t. We saw this during Irene when many homes were totaled in Lindenhurst, while others were saying the storm was a dud. Prepare for power loss, flooding, property damage, and being displaced if your home is damaged by a falling tree or flooding.
Stay safe.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.