NYC Long Range Forecast Tropical Update
Good morning everyone. We have a very beautiful day today on tap, plus some fairly comfortable weather into the beginning of the week. We’ll switch gears today and discuss the tropics since it’s starting to get a little busier, and I’ll also discuss our long range into September.
SATELLITE
First, we’ll have a sunny and slightly breezy day today. A light northerly flow will go northeasterly later on, setting us up for tomorrow’s weather; but not before we enjoy a dry and comfortable day in the mid to upper 70’s.
Tomorrow, the winds continue to turn as high pressure slides away. We’ll have more clouds in the area, plus a slight chance of scattered showers. Don’t expect a washout by any means and I haven’t cancelled my outdoor plans, so I wouldn’t recommend doing so either. We’ll also have the same steady 10-15mph wind in the area, with highs again in the mid to upper 70’s.
REGIONAL RADAR
To start the week, our northeasterly flow and slightly below average temps continue, making it feel like post-Labor Day in the area rather than pre. Clouds and sun continue to trade back and forth as mid to upper 70’s continue in the area through Tuesday.
Our warmup is still on schedule, but it also may be knocked down a few degrees due to our slow-departing tropical system that’ll be going in between the East Coast and Bermuda. As of now, we should start seeing 80 mid-week, then low to mid 80’s by late week.
For Labor Day weekend, we MIGHT squeeze out one more warm one on Saturday, but it all depends on the timing of a font and arrival of high pressure. This time of year, our cooler/drier weather comes in the form of high pressure sliding across the area, then quickly giving us a return flow off of the ocean.
This case is looking no different, and the 2nd half of your holiday weekend is looking like more clouds than sun, slight chance of showers, and in the mid to upper 70’s; very similar to what we’ll experience tomorrow.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
In the long range, our warm weather is not done yet, with post-Labor Day looking warmer overall if everything pans out. As heat and humidity recover and build back into the Midwest, expect that airmass to slide our way. If everything works out frontal-wise, mid to upper 80’s will most likely make a return for the first 1/4 of September.
Heading further down the road and into mid-September, this pattern of 3;3 in terms of cooler & comfortable days vs. warmer and more humid days looks plausible as well as typical for our area this time of year. Don’t be shocked if clouds and precipitation hold us into the upper 60’s one day, and we’re shooting for near 90 another day. That is what September is all about in the NYC area.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
As far as the tropics are concerned, they are awakening out of their deep slumber, but not in an impressive way yet. We have our eye on two disturbances, one from an old front off of Florida, and the other halfway in between Africa and the Windward’s.
Expect the disturbance off of Florida to develop into a depression or even something post tropical and wider-reaching in terms of real estate. It’ll slowly head northeast and poses no real issues at the moment aside from maybe skirting parts of the east coast with some clouds and a tropical shower. Depending on how much it develops, some rougher than normal surf will be possible and increased rip tides. Other than that, it’ll post no issue to anyone except for shipping.
Our disturbance in the Atlantic is a little too far south for my taste, but we’ll keep an eye on it as once in a while they do get drawn a little further north and affect the Caribbean. Wave action off of Africa is increasing slightly, and overall, the pattern will become more favorable for development.
Again, we have no immediate threats at this moment, but the overall pattern is concerning if anything develops and makes the trek. As stated above in our local forecast, areas highs pressure will be sliding across our area and giving us a return flow. That equates to pushing everything into the Southeast and Gulf as the flow gets compressed. Unless the timing is right, a northerly turn into the Atlantic will be unlikely and almost anything would be free to flow right into the Caribbean.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.