Tropical Storm Dorian To Hit Caribbean Possibly Southeast

Tropical Storm Dorian To Hit Caribbean Possibly Southeast

Good morning everyone. We have a busy week ahead as we juggle our NYC Labor Day Weekend forecast, and a tropical threat for the Southeast in the form of Tropical Storm Dorian that’ll become a hurricane over the course of the next day or two.


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For our area, we have a cool and cloudy start to the week. Temps are approx. 5 degrees below average, and clouds combined with an easterly fetch will give us an early fall feel. Eventually, we could see a few patches of blue, but we won’t recover much as we hang out in the mid 70’s and a steady east wind.

Tomorrow we’ll have a little bit of extra sunshine, but we remain in the 70’s as that maritime flow continues. Expect highs in the upper 70’s, but we’ll remain rain free.


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Mid-week we begin to warm up. Average highs this time of year are near 80, and we’ll go for that or maybe some low 80’s by Wednesday. A weak front may touch off a shower or two, but most of the energy will be going north.

For late week, high pressure behind that front will approach from the west but slightly to the south. This will help bring some westerlies in for the time being, which will equate to warm and dry weather. Look for mid 80’s and dry Thursday and Friday and as discussed in the previous forecast, it looks as if we’ll squeeze out one more warm one on Saturday before cooler weather filters in.


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For your Labor Day Weekend, we’ll get that warm day on Saturday with sunny skies and mid 80’s once again, then a weak front will help usher in some cooler air. This area of high pressure will do what we’ve been talking about; sliding west to east and to our north.

That’ll help give is a nice, comfortable, and slightly below average day temp-wise Sunday with mid to upper 70’s; then that high will slip to our east and may give us a return flow by Monday. If the timing holds steady, that return flow could give us a cloudy and drizzly Monday.

We’ll hold off on calling the ball on Monday for the moment, and switch gears to the tropics below.

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For the tropics, Tropical Storm Dorian has formed out of that wave we discussed last forecast. We also discussed the issues in terms of what could happen to the Caribbean and Southeast as these high pressure systems move over the Northeast up here. It looks as if everything is coming to fruition and high pressure will compress everything south, protecting us up here, but rowing any disturbance across the Caribbean and into the Southeast.

Tropical Storm Dorian has winds of 60mph as I type, but we’re not seeing an extremely organized storm yet. Eventually it’ll get itself together and possibly give Puerto Rico and/or the Dominican Republic problems first. If it follows this path, the high terrain of both islands could help dramatically weaken it as it tries to take a northwesterly turn towards the Bahamas and Florida. It may also not make the NW turn and skirt across Cuba. If that happens, it’ll essentially be ripped to pieces.

We have a long way to go on this one. At this point, I do not see a major hurricane slamming into Florida or the Southeast, but we have to watch closely and see how this does pan out.


Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.