Tropical Storm Dorian Enters Caribbean
Good morning everyone. Tropical Storm Dorian has entered the Caribbean and is looking healthy even though it’s not gaining strength fast. Also, the mechanics driving its path are holding fairly consistent, which puts the Southeast in its sights by Labor Day Weekend. Up here in the Northeast, our concerns are nonexistent as we have a relatively quiet week ahead.
SATELLITE
We’ll have increasing clouds today as that warmer airmass continues to drift our way. Look for the wind off the Atlantic to continue, with highs a comfortable upper 70’s; slightly cooler at the immediate shore.
Tomorrow, we’ll have clouds in the area and a slight chance of showers. Tomorrow will actually be muggier than Thursday, even though Thursday will be warmer on paper. Expect highs in the low 80 range tomorrow.
REGIONAL RADAR
We’ll clear all of the nonsense out by Thursday morning, and get into some sunnier skies. WNW winds will help dry things out, but it’ll also help warm things up. Look for low to mid 80’s for the entire area, even the immediate shore, with low humidity and relatively comfortable conditions.
Sunny skies continue on Friday, and we may turn things up a notch temp-wise if the winds cooperate. Expect mid 80’s in most areas, but we could see a few upper 80’s pop given the right conditions.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
For your Labor Day Weekend, a weak front moves through some time late Friday with little fanfare and high pressure will begin to settle in. Depending on the timing of the front and how that high moves in, will dictate whether we have a seasonable Saturday, or a slightly warmer one. Either way, Saturday is looking sunny and dry. The only question is, do we do near 80 temps? or do we go for mid 80’s again…We’ll narrow that down as we get closer, but it’s not really a big deal and just semantics at this point.
Sunday continues to look like a cooler transition day, as we’ll increase the clouds and wait to see what Monday brings. A get bet for Sunday will be mid to upper 70’s and dry, so keep your plans and just dress accordingly, especially in the evening as things usually cool off quick this time of year.
Monday remains iffy, and Dorian’s approach into the Southeast late Saturday/Sunday complicates the forecast. We know a maritime fetch is most likely on tap, with cloudy skies and maybe a few showers. The question will be whether Tropical Storm Dorian somehow enhances the situation or not. For now, we will continue to avoid calling the ball on Monday and let’s see what Dorian does.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
Tropical Storm Dorian continues to chug WNW at a pretty good clip and is looking ok health-wise. It’s not very impressive on the satellite as far as its signature, and it doesn’t have that, “oh yeah, that’s going to be a major hurricane quickly” look to it; but thunderstorms are concentrated near the center, and you can see a decent inflow/outflow if you look closely.
It’s just in an area where conditions aren’t very favorable for development, so it’s just holding its own right now. After the Windward’s, next up will be Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. If it doesn’t gain much strength or eeks out minimum hurricane-type status, its going to have big problems when it hits the higher elevations of the islands.
It may emerge torn apart and not have enough time to reorganize and redevelop quickly. However, the area around the Bahamas is notorious for surprises, so don’t let your guard down and continue to watch the system closely. At a minimum, somewhere along the lower Southeast and inland from landfall, will be faced with flooding rain and heavy squalls; which could equate to brief tornadoes.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.