NYC LONG RANGE OUTLOOK 2019 START
Good morning everyone and Merry Christmas to all those who celebrate! Light precip is starting to exit the New York City area as I type and we’ll be left with a comfortable day. For today, I get out the crystal ball to see what’s going on a little further down the road and past the outer-limits of those pesky models.
EASTERN SATELLITE
First and foremost, your Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are look pretty much as normal as normal gets. Expect gradual clearing as the day goes on with a steady westerly breeze, highs in the low to mid 40’s. Overnight, we drop into the upper 20’s to low 30’s (cooler away from the City) and will remain precip-free.
For Christmas Day tomorrow, look for sunny skies, a steady breeze, and highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s.
REGIONAL RADAR
Seasonable temps remain with us for the week until our next system arrives. This seems to be the working pattern which I’ll go into below. Expect a dry and sunny Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 35-40 range.
Clouds increase Thursday night and rain will be moving in late. While this will be a replay in terms of us being in the warm sector of our next system, I don’t think we squeeze the same amount of rain out of this one compared to this past week. Most of the energy will be racing northward and further off to the west. That being said, we are oversaturated, so 1″ of rain can cause issues in the notorious spots.
Look for clouds and steady rain Friday morning, then more of a nuisance style rain and stubborn clouds for the remainder of the day; highs in upper 40’s to low 50’s.
If everything goes as planned, our weekend is looking Jekyll and Hyde temp-wise. That departing storm Friday night, could create a temporary southwest flow and temporary gap between cool air shots with low pressure so far west and north. This could make for a sunny and mild Saturday with highs again in the upper 40’s to low 50’s, but this time with no precip.
Regardless of how Saturday turns out, seasonable temps return for Sunday and we’re back in that 35-40 range. Remember, in the dead of winter, our average highs in the NYC area only go down to about 36. Yes, we’ve obviously had much colder temps (and much warmer) during our winters, but when see forecasts with highs in the 35-40 range, we are actually hanging around normal for us.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
For New Years, we continue to look at energy entering our quadrant, but nothing looks organized as of now. In fact, we could wind up with a normal to slightly about normal New Years Eve temp wise if things hold and nothing organizes.
For your long range, things continue to look hostile towards snow with the pattern not taking advantage of the cold air available. (Yes, regardless of the naysayers, there is plenty cold air available for snow) Systems look to continue to go to our west and north for the time being, meaning rain for the most part. So for the first week after New Years, expect near-normal temps in between systems, a rainy day with upper 40’s and 50’s, then back to normal.
However, in the late 2nd quarter of January (7-15th), we may see a pattern shift allowing below normal temps to creep in. I’m not a big fan of the phrase Polar Vortex and the hype that goes along with it, so we’ll just keep the language mild. We’ll be watching closely to see if a dome of arctic air will be able to sink down into the midwest and then drift east, but we could get into some 20’s as highs and lows in the teens by mid-month.
What the means for us snow-wise is up in the air at this moment, but we’ll be on the lookout for any snow-friendly paths during the possible cold-snap.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
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