NYC Long Range Pattern Change Ahead
Good morning everyone and happy Sunday. We’re watching low pressure get ever so close to the listening area, but not close enough to cause any concerns aside from gusty winds and possibly some scattered light snow showers on the very eastern tip of Long Island. That’ll move into the maritime and give New England a healthy surprise, then we resume our pattern of mild conditions preceding wet systems. Things will be changing though, and we may go colder towards the end of the month as far as temps and systems.
SATELLITE
For today, we’ll have mostly sunny skies here, with clouds increasing as you go out towards eastern Long Island. On the South Fork, you may see some scattered flurries or snow showers, with little to no accumulation expected. Look for highs in the upper 30’s to near 40. Winds will be gusty making it feel like a typical winter day on the skin, so bundle up even though things look moderate on paper temp-wise.
After a cold one overnight in the 25-30 range, we modify things a bit tomorrow with sunshine and low to mid 40’s. Winds will also begin to settle down, making it feel more comfortable out there.
WEATHER RADAR
On Tuesday, we’ll have some overrunning as milder temps begin to move in. We’ll have mostly cloudy skies, with a very slight chance of AM light snow and/or mixed precip, then a slight chance of a few rain showers. With highs in the mid to upper 40’s, there will be no icing or sticking issues (if anything happens at all).
Expect decreasing clouds on Wednesday, and this will be the best day of the week with sunshine and near 50 temps. Typical for this pattern, we’ll cloud up again Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with another batch of steady rain heading though Thursday PM into the overnight hours.
Even though there are no major snow storms on the horizon and we remain looking mostly wet, we are watching some subtle changes on the West Coast over the next 2 weeks that may begin to change things a bit here. Instead of a direct head-on collision with each system on the West Coast, we will begin to see them diving into the Northwest and head southeast into Nevada and Arizona/New Mexico.
This signals the end of a zonal flow (at least for now), which typically equates to a milder and quick-moving west to east flow; and more of a robust jet stream that is capable of producing stronger systems with a more snow-friendly or near-snow-friendly path. It doesn’t mean that NYC will definitely see some snow, but at minimum it gives us a better chance as we enter February.
We’ll be watching it closely to see if this is just a temporary “glitch” in a dominant zonal pattern, or if this will lock in and take hold for several weeks. If it locks in, then February might be interesting.
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