NYC Models Continue Arguing Over Cold Air & Convection
Good morning everyone. As we start our day today in anticipation of overnight wintry precip, the models continue to not be in line with each other in terms of how much cold air we have and how much convection takes place. There are a lot of things I said yesterday about this being a complicated forecast, and it continues to be: which is why I continue to approach this with caution and speak of both the upside/downside surprises that will take place, plus the possibility of multiple transitions between rain, sleet, and snow.
SATELLITE
For today, we start off with some sunshine, then increasing clouds as the day goes on. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. The one thing that will help snow lovers out, is the late start in precip. Expect snow and/or sleet to begin some time between 11pm and 2am overnight. It’s also possible that this may start off as some very light rain before the falling precip cools the atmosphere down enough to go to that snow or snow/sleet mix.
Here’s where things get complicated. As of this moment, the high resolution model traps enough cold air to keep things mostly snow or mostly snow/sleet in the area, but does so with less convection. The NAM looks more convective, but allows for warmer air to sneak in. For this reason, I am sticking to my original forecast yesterday, while also discussing the chance for both upside and downside surprises. Again, this is a complicated forecast and always was. Overrunning situations and late-developing waves, especially during a winter like this, are very hard to pinpoint and rarely work out 100% perfect.
For areas N&W of the NYC area, expect a 4-8″+ snowfall out of this, with potentially higher amounts (6-12″+) in higher elevations and if that secondary low winds up being a little bit more vigorous.
For the NYC area, look for 1-3″ possible, mostly on colder surfaces. For Long Island, the South Shore has the biggest potential for a bust due to its proximity to the milder ocean. Right now we will keep the area in the dusting to 1″ range. Along the North Shore and North Fork, we’ll bunch them in with NYC with 1-3″. We could also see several transitions between snow, sleet, and rain depending on the intensity of the precip. Heavier rain will cool the atmosphere and change things back to big wet flakes, then drizzle or sleet as things get lighter.
Here is the “best case scenario” for snow lovers. If enough cold air is trapped, if that secondary low can get going, and if the precip winds up being heavier, we could see a 2-4/3-5″ scenario play out for the NYC area and the North Shore of Long Island. That’ll put the South Shore in a 1-3″ type snowfall before mixing with or turning to sleet and/or rain.
Again, this is a complicated forecast and system, and we remain not locked in on anything.
WEATHER RADAR
We’ll see snow, sleet, and/or rain come to an end tomorrow, then partial clearing and highs near 40. Anything that does remain on the ground will be gone by Wednesday, with sunshine and highs 45-50. We’ll see some AM showers on Thursday, then some blue breaks and highs in the 55-60 range.
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