NYC Near Christmas Storm Will Impact Ohio Valley Northeast
Good morning everyone and happy Sunday. Wishing all of those who celebrate Hanukkah a happy and peaceful holiday. We have a quiet and chilly period ahead, with cold dry nights, until our next system begins to influence the weather on Thursday and onward. We went over some caveats heavily yesterday, explaining what was going on and why I don’t like double-barrel low pressure systems depicted by models. We also approached this forecast very carefully, without getting ahead of ourselves several days ago. After the immediate forecast below, we’ll go into the why, when, who, and what, at the bottom.
SATELLITE
Expect sun and clouds today with highs in the upper 30’s to near 40. It’ll be a cold one overnight, with lows in the 25-30 range.
This type of weather continues tomorrow, with essentially a carbon copy of today; upper 30’s to near 40 as highs, 25-30 degrees for lows.
WEATHER RADAR
We’ll keep that stretch going Tuesday and Wednesday, but the lows won’t be as cold Wednesday night with increase clouds acting as a thermal blanket. Now for the good stuff below….
Clouds continue to lower and thicken Thursday, with light rain developing between late morning and early afternoon. Depending on its arrival time, the NYC Metro Area could see a brief mix of rain and wet snow, with rain being the primary precip. The later it arrives, the more the atmosphere will “warm” up, giving as plain cold rain during the onset. Regardless of how this begins, no accumulation is expected. Highs will be in the upper 40’s to near 50 for Thursday. Lows overnight remain steady or near-steady, and rain will become heavier in nature with increasing winds. This part of the storm is actually the un-phased section of it, with most of our precip riding up the coast with a SSE wind component.
Our second area of low pressure coming out of the Rockies and Midwest, is the leading edge of very cold air locked in Canada as we speak. It’ll ride that cold air mass and eventually combine with our energy responsible for Thursday’s rain, but that phasing will occur too late and further west thanks to our previous Nor’Easter that was slow to pull away. We should see a break in the precip some time late Thursday night and early Friday morning, but then it ramps up again as our storms quickly deepens in the Ohio Valley/Western NY area. Strong winds will swing around from the SSE, to SW, then West. Expect another period of rain heading in, but temps will begin to drop as winds switch more westerly and our powerful low begins to wrap cold air around itself.
This will cause a changeover of rain to snow in Central PA, possibly creeping our way as our low heads into Canada/Upper New England. Any changeover to snow or mix for NYC will be a race to the finish line between cold air and moisture. If we have moisture left over and the cold air makes it in on time, we could most certainly see some parting flakes in parts of NJ, NYC, and Long Island. However, it is too soon to tell as today is Sunday and we’re talking late Friday here.
We could go over a few important things though regardless of how our system finally looks –
- Anyone traveling to the Northeast this holiday, should plan on driving up earlier or seeing if they can change their flight tickets. Just because we are not expecting major snows for NYC and LI, doesn’t mean there won’t be problems. Flight cancellations cascade when other airports shut down or there are delays. Also, airports such as Newark and LGA cancel flights at the drop of a hat. Don’t be lulled into the mindset that your flight is OK because there won’t be a blizzard. Change your reservations before everyone else does and now you can’t due to demand.
- Whether this ends as snow for NYC or not, a flash freeze is possible overnight Friday, creating treacherous travel conditions overnight Friday and Saturday. Any rain that does fall and any moisture leftover, could turn into black ice and patches of ice.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.