NYC NOREASTER NUMBER TWO MODEL UPDATE
NYC NOREASTER NUMBER TWO MODEL UPDATE
NYC NOREASTER NUMBER TWO MODEL UPDATE – Good evening everyone. As we get closer to our second Nor’easter within a week’s time, models continue to butt heads as far as a slightly warmer solution versus a slightly colder solution.
Everything remains on schedule with a late Tuesday night start as rain and/or rain & snow mix, then the questions begin as to whether we change to all snow, or continue our mix, especially for the south shore of Long Island and the Forks. As of now, I’m sticking with a rain changing to snow scenario, possibly mixing at times, and everything coming to an end sometime after midnight Wednesday.
Models remain torn, but similar path, size, and strength
The GFS (left) and the short range NAM (right), remain torn but very similar at this moment. The GFS does not allow for as much atmospheric cooling, giving Long Island a rain or rain/snow mix; and the NAM goes full cold aside from the Forks of Long Island. Obviously this will impact amounts either way, but until things settle down and the picture is more clear, bust potential remains moderate to high, especially areas closest to the low that sets up. Also not discussed much, if the low is “too close”, a dry slot could set up and cut someone off of the heaviest, prolonged precip; lowering both snow and rain totals.
Experimental Snow Map Remains Untouched
As of now, I’m not touching the snow map until I see what the morning model runs bring. While I never depend solely or too much on models, temperature profiles will be important on this one and the models do help in this particular case. The snow map remains untouched, but confidence remains low to moderate, especially for the south shore of Long Island, the Forks, and where the heaviest band sets up.
Either way, every model agrees on a compact, relatively fast moving system. Because of how compact it is, it’s going to be very difficult to forecast who sees the heaviest of the snow; so we’ll have to wait and see where the highest convection sets up, and take it step by step. Stay tuned for more.
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