NYC PATTERN CHANGE OUTLOOK
NYC PATTERN CHANGE OUTLOOK
NYC PATTERN CHANGE OUTLOOK – Good morning everyone. The first of three spring-like systems is upon us in what will be a long, drawn out march towards our pattern change back to winter-like weather. Mild temps immediately ahead of these broad systems will be replaced by normal to slightly above normal temps behind them as arctic cold air builds back up and gets ready for another push.
Today will be cloudy with a damp feel to the air regardless of the mid to upper 40’s throughout the area. Variable light winds will help create a ripe atmosphere for areas of fog and drizzle at times. Winds will finally find a direction out of the east as a broad warm front begins to transit through the area. Look for areas of fog and drizzle to continue, then a chance of rain as we approach dawn.
Winds will whip around to the south tomorrow in the order of 10-20mph, possibly a few higher gusts along the immediate shore as the warm front passes and we await the cold front. Most of the energy will go to our north with the heaviest of rain, but look for rain nonetheless throughout the day, and don’t be surprised if we hear some thunder as well. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50’s.
Wednesday, we return back to earth, with sunny skies, gusty winds, and highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. Mid 30’s are on the menu for Thursday as the core of the cool air moves over us, but then we modify into the mid to upper 30’s Friday, mid to upper 40’s Saturday (possibly 50), then mid to upper 50’s possible once again on Sunday with the approach of a similar system we’re having today/tomorrow.
That would be system number 2 in our trek back towards any pattern that could have any chance of bringing back the opportunity for snow. We return back towards normal temps once again mid-week the following week, then we await for another mild push ahead of a third system. As this happens, arctic air will be building up and recharging over Canada.
The mechanism to bring it down will probably be that third system or a reinforcing smaller system behind it towards the end of the first week of February. As this happens, the active pattern will continue as far as this procession of systems. With our pattern change will also come a change in the path of that procession.
This will possibly give us the chance of some snow again in the Northeast corridor IF the timing is right with our cold air trying to head back in. The only issue I see at this moment, is not if we’ll see more below average temps, but how long they last. Colder air will be heading back in, but if it doesn’t invade the deep south and slide over, we could be in for just a quick shot of arctic air compared to the long-lasting blast we had in December/January.
Essentially, it’ll be a fight between two system path patterns, an active pattern, and the cold air. Deep winter wants to return, that is a given at this point. The question is, does the old man have enough to last several more rounds and pull out a decisive victory? Or does he just pepper us with some shots in a long, drawn out fight into March.
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