NYC POST BLIZZARD LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
NYC POST BLIZZARD LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
NYC POST BLIZZARD LONG RANGE OUTLOOK – Good morning everyone! Hopefully everyone stayed safe during our return to reality winter-wise. I am very happy with the way the forecast panned out. We watched the system very closely and fine-tuned the forecast right into the bullseye for what was a very complicated storm to predict, especially given the speed of this blizzard.
I was asked all week for a long range forecast in which I refused to do so. The reason being that a storm this powerful, can alter the narrative for the rest of a winter season and set off a chain of events in terms of jet stream, cold air masses, and immediate cold due to snow pack.
NYC POST BLIZZARD LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
NYC POST BLIZZARD LONG RANGE OUTLOOK – First, let’s discuss the immediate forecast. For today, unseasonably cold air dragged down from the Blizzard of 2017, will team up with our fresh snow pack to give us a sunny, windy, and cold day; highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Clouds will begin to increase later this evening as a weak system/warmer airmass begins to approach the area. An area of over-running precip will move in, giving us the slight chance of some light snow overnight. Most of the energy will go to our north. However, if a weak wave forms to our south as it’s departing, any scattered light snow, may become more steady. Even if this happens, we’ll see a dusting to a 1/2″ of snow at best. The only surprise might be the east end of Long Island, which could squeeze out a coating to 2″ of snow if precip is slightly enhanced by any wave that may form. At this point, confidence is weak to moderate at best and don’t be surprised if we wake up in the morning to just the snow we see already on the ground. Lows will remain steady overnight and temps tomorrow should rise to the mid 40’s tomorrow with more clouds than sun.
Clouds will increase tomorrow night, as a more significant system approaches from our west. At this point, the system path will not be conducive for snow. Instead, we’re looking for a cold, rainy, and raw day for Sunday and into the night. A steady, cold rain should be with us in periods for much of the day, highs in the low 40’s. Things begin to clear out on Monday and we’ll have a seasonably cool day with highs again in the low 40’s.
In the long range, things are looking seasonably cold as quick, weak, reinforcing shots of cold air move through the NYC area. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to low 40’s all week next week, then we resume the active pattern of systems transiting our area after slamming the west coast. There are several threats for rain and/or snow in the 10+ day outlook, but it’s way too far out to even discuss until we see what path these systems are going to take.
So now that the Blizzard of 2017 has passed during an unseasonably warm winter, the narrative for the next few weeks will be seasonably/unseasonably cold weather aside from a day here or there that may be above normal depending on system paths.
Satellite View
Satellite shows our blizzard well past Newfoundland as an over-running bank of clouds heads towards us from Wisconsin and Michigan.
Now that the blizzard has departed, radar is very quiet. Expect some light snow to spread into the area overnight, but most of the energy will go to our north.
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