NYC RAINY THUNDERY CHRISTMAS APPROACH EURO DASHES WHITE CHRISTMAS LONGSHOT

Good morning everyone. We have a major storm heading our way towards NYC, packing wind, rain, thunder, flooding potential, and even a brief shot of mild air. Meanwhile, the EURO model which stood alone on the idea of a White Christmas, is starting to walk back it’s longshot for snow lovers.

EASTERN SATELLITE

For those waking up early this morning, you’ll get the treat of some sun before things begin to cloud up rather quickly. This is associated with a fast-moving, strong warm front drifting our way ahead of a very large system. Winds will swing around to the east and we’ll have the chance of rain beginning between 2-5pm. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 40’s.

Overnight, temps will remain steady, then rise before sunrise as that warm front passes over the area. During this process, expect steady rain, heavy at times, with localized flooding possible in poor drainage areas. 40’s going into the night will give way to mid to upper 50’s as you wake up. Don’t be surprised too if you hear a rumble of warm-front thunder overnight.

Wind will also be an issue by dawn as that southerly flow escalates behind the passing warm front and ahead of a vigorous cold front/low pressure combo for Friday. Winds, especially at the immediate coast, will be whirring 15-25 mph sustained with gusts possibly 40+.

REGIONAL RADAR

For tomorrow, we await the arrival of that strong cold front. I don’t think the action will be as concentrated as Thursday night as far as steady rain, but we should see spotty, tropical-like, brief heavy showers until the main line of action arrives. Winds will continue to blow 15-25 along the immediate shore with gusts of 40+ possible, especially in heavier showers.

Strong Cold Front To Sweep By

When the main line of heavy showers and storms arrive with our cold front, you’ll know it. Timing wise I’m thinking late morning to mid-afternoon as far as the heaviest of rain. Sometimes it takes a little longer than expected for things to get here when everything is racing south to north while drifting east.

Either way, expect everyone to get in on the stronger winds and higher gusts that the immediate shore will have felt all night and day. Again, localized flooding in poor drainage areas is likely in spots that see the heaviest rain. For those who see biggest action, this line will dump 1-2″ of rain very quickly and locally higher amounts are very possible. Highs tomorrow a mild 55-60. Areas well away from the coast and away from that wind whipping off the cool water, there could be some mid 60’s reported in interior parts of NYS and New England.

The chance of rain continues into tomorrow night as the remaining energy will be slow to pass by. After that batch of heavy showers and storms, you’ll probably see a little break, then a return to light to moderate rain through the night.

For those who have a good memory, this system is very much like the ones we frequently got from late October to late December in the 80’s and 90’s.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

For our weekend and our approach to Christmas, it’ll be tough to clear things out on Saturday. This system covers a lot of land and things kind of grind to a halt as it tries to clear out Friday night. Look for lingering clouds Saturday, windy, and the chance of spotty showers until late morning/early afternoon.

Those 55-60 degree temps are also long gone with that system pulling in cool air behind it rather quickly. Temps will fall through the 40’s for a brisk day as we begin partial clearing in the afternoon.

On Sunday, we remain breezy but it’ll be sunny throughout. Low 40’s will be on the menu for most spots and wind chills could range between the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA

A sprinkle or flurry is possible for early Monday with a reinforcing shot of cool air/weak piece of energy; but long as the EURO doesn’t bring back any weird surprises again, my Hail-Mary forecast from November 30th for Christmas Day has a clear path for a touchdown.

Look for clouds and sun for Monday, highs in the near 40 to low 40 range. Christmas Eve is looking dry and seasonably cold, with lows overnight in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.

Then for Christmas Day, it should be beautiful and seasonably cool. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies and highs 35-40.

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