NYC SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AUTUMN 2018 OUTLOOK

Good morning everyone. We have a lot going on today in the New York City area as juicy and moist air has taken up residence again for a 1 day show. If you’ve been following the forecasts for the past couple of weeks, this was expected and is the process of how we cool down in the long run. The bigger story is for our chance of strong to severe storms today, plus I get out the crystal ball to give everyone a preview as to what direction I think Fall is leaning.

First off, we have a cloudy start in most areas with patchy fog, especially along the immediate shore. It’s starting to break up and we should have some patches of blue starting between now and noon. Dew points are in the low 70’s and highs should reach the upper 70’s to low 80’s, providing the fuel we need to spark off a line of strong to severe storms. It’ll be a somewhat narrow line and most of the energy will be going to the north and west of us, but we’ll be keeping a close eye out for anything that develops close to our area and/or stays intact during its transit. The biggest threat will be strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and hail (especially interior parts away from NYC). Also, depending on the amount of shear once the line is established, there could be a few isolated tornadoes.

REGIONAL RADAR

Once we get past this frontal boundary overnight, we’ll have partial clearing tomorrow and a much more comfortable day. Expect sun and clouds tomorrow with a light northerly flow, and highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. On Friday, a reinforcing shot of seasonal air will be moving in. However, a wave may form along this boundary to give us a surprise rainy day. We’ll be keeping a close eye out on this prospect, so for now, we’ll call for variable clouds and the chance of some showers; but we could wind up with a steadier rain if things are more organized. Highs 65-70 with an easterly fetch.

The weekend is looking absolutely gorgeous, with sunny skies, low humidity, and highs in the low to mid 70’s Saturday, then upper 60’s to low 70’s Sunday. Seasonal air sticks around to start October, but then a wrench could be thrown into the big scheme of things mid-week onward.

Hurricane Rosa Complicates Cool-down

Monday and Tuesday next week look to remain typical October, but Hurricane Rosa could force a strong ridge to build ahead of it in the upper mid-west as she races from the Baja to Alberta, Canada. This surge of warm air will eventually drift our way in one form or another. This transition should start at or around next Wednesday, but it’s too early to tell what side of the boundary we will be on. The potential is there for some 80’s, but we could also temporarily find ourselves on the maritime side of things with upper 60’s/70’s.

Eventually, that warm air will win out and we could have a stretch of warm, humid weather from late week next week into the first weekend of October; where 80’s are not out of the question by any means. We may also see one more round of strong to severe storms the weekend of the 6th/7th depending on the timing of the front and a return to more fall-like weather.

Fall Outlook

After the “Rosa Ridge”, I think we settle into a more seasonal pattern overall. Now it’s important to remember, when I say seasonal, it doesn’t necessarily mean that every day is going to strictly follow our slow decline of normal highs down towards winter. We are going to have more volatility, more ups and downs; but in the big scheme of things, we will be cooler and more comfortable for most days.

The biggest feature I see on the map is that we’re starting to see some snow showing up. When doing long range outlooks, I look for potential. Whether its hot air as we get into late spring, or cold air as we head towards winter, I look for certain signs as to what’s going on and what it means. To see snow on the map in October shows me potential. Not necessarily for early snow here, but I’m looking for available cold air. If we start seeing snow during the afternoon hours in the upper midwest, cold air is now available.

For the New York City metro area, this equates to the potential for stronger, more defined fronts, an on-time first frost, and given the right conditions, some snowflakes in the air. Unless I see any major changes, I’m thinking we’ll see our first flakes between late October and mid November. We’re not talking about a snowstorm, but it’ll be our first visual that winter is coming (flurries, wet snow mixed with rain).

That’s a lot of information to take in, so stay tuned as we follow all of the dynamics and nuances going on as the gears of autumn are starting to turn fast.

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